Olivia Rodrigo predicted to win 5 Grammys, but Jon Batiste could have an even bigger night

The Grammys on Sunday, April 3, are going to be a great night for breakout star Olivia Rodrigo, according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users who have been placing their bets here in our predictions center. Out of her seven nominations, our odds favor her to win five of them. Do you agree? Scroll down to see our predictions by artist in 33 categories.

Our odds favor Rodrigo to take three prizes for her breakthrough single “Drivers License”: Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best Pop Solo Performance. In addition, she’s the front-runner for Best Pop Vocal Album for “Sour,” and she’s the overwhelming favorite for Best New Artist. That’s a lot for a newcomer, but it’s actually not that uncommon. Those are the exact same five awards that Amy Winehouse won in her breakthrough year 2008, with the sole difference that Pop Solo Performance was divided between male and female vocalists when she won. Sam Smith won four out of those five categories in 2015, only losing Pop Solo Performance.

Perhaps surprisingly, though our users favor Rodrigo over Billie Eilish (“Happier Than Ever”) for Best Pop Vocal Album, they’re actually giving the edge to Eilish for the top prize, Album of the Year. That would be her second victory in the category, making her only the third woman to win the award more than once as a lead artist, following Adele and Taylor Swift. It would be an unusual result, but it’s exactly what happened last year when Dua Lipa (“Future Nostalgia”) beat Swift (“Folklore”) for Best Pop Album while Swift beat Lipa for Album of the Year. As was the curious case for Swift last year, Album of the Year is the only win we’re projecting for Eilish.

But Jon Batiste could eclipse both of them. Though we’re only predicting him to win two categories (Best R&B Album for “We Are,” Best Visual Media Score for “Soul”), that’s because only six of his leading 11 nominations are in categories we’re predicting. His other five noms are in American roots, classical, and jazz categories. So assuming we’re right about the two wins we’re betting on, he could still end the night with as many as seven trophies. Just like with Rodrigo, these would be the first Grammys of his career. Not a bad way to start.

OLIVIA RODRIGO
Record of the Year — “Drivers License”
Song of the Year — “Drivers License”
Best New Artist
Best Pop Solo Performance — “Drivers License”
Best Pop Vocal Album — “Sour”

CHRIS STAPLETON
Best Country Solo Performance — “You Should Probably Leave”
Best Country Song — “Cold”
Best Country Album — “Starting Over”

JON BATISTE
Best R&B Album — “We Are”
Best Visual Media Score — “Soul”

TONY BENNETT AND LADY GAGA
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance — “I Get a Kick Out of You”
Best Traditional Pop Album — “Love for Sale”

FOO FIGHTERS
Best Rock Performance — “Making a Fire”
Best Rock Album — “Medicine at Midnight”

H.E.R.
Best Traditional R&B Performance — “Fight for You”
Best Visual Media Song — “Fight for You”

LIL NAS X
Best Melodic Rap Performance — “Industry Baby” (with Jack Harlow)
Best Music Video — “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)”

SILK SONIC
Best R&B Performance — “Leave the Door Open”
Best R&B Song — “Leave the Door Open”

BABY KEEM AND KENDRICK LAMAR
Best Rap Song — “Family Ties”

BAD BUNNY
Best Musica Urbana Album — “El Ultimo Tour Del Mundo”

BROTHERS OSBORNE
Best Country Duo/Group Performance — “Younger Me”

CARDI B
Best Rap Performance — “Up”

BILLIE EILISH
Album of the Year — “Happier Than Ever”

SELENA GOMEZ
Best Latin Pop Album — “Revelacion”

JENNIFER HUDSON
Best Visual Media Compilation — “Respect”

TERRACE MARTIN, ROBERT GLASPER, 9TH WONDER, AND KAMASI WASHINGTON
Best Progressive R&B Album — “Dinner Party: Dessert”

PAUL MCCARTNEY
Best Rock Song — “Find My Way”

TRENT REZNOR AND ATTICUS ROSS
Best Visual Media Score — “Soul”

ST. VINCENT
Best Alternative Album — “Daddy’s Home”

KANYE WEST
Best Rap Album — “Donda”

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