SportsGrid MLB Model Picks for Saturday, July 8

The dog days of summer are upon us, and MLB action is the only sport to keep us going. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Orioles Moneyline (+102): 5-Star Rating

Winners of three in a row, the Baltimore Orioles are charging up the AL East standings. The O’s moved within 3.0 games of the Tampa Bay Rays after last night’s 3-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins. Baltimore carries that momentum into Saturday’s matinee, presenting value as plus-money underdogs. 

Orioles pitchers have been unhittable this week. Collectively, the O’s staff has combined for a minuscule 2.89 ERA while limiting opponents to a .215 batting average. Moreover, they’ve allowed just two runs over their past two games without taxing their bullpen. That leaves them in good shape as they look to continue their onslaught versus AL playoff contenders.

Likewise, O’s batters are seeing the ball well at the plate. Over the past seven days, the upstart Orioles have a .802 OPS, including 23 extra-base hits and 32 runs scored. That gives them a pronounced advantage over the Twinkies, who have struggled at the dish all year. 

Still, Baltimore’s advantages aren’t reflected in the betting price, leaving an edge in backing the visitors in this one. According to our projections, backing the Orioles as +102 underdogs is rated as a five-star play. 

Corbin Carroll is Worth Backing as NL Rookie of the Year

Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Under 8 (-110): 5-Star Rating

Oh, how they mighty have fallen. The Rays spent the early part of the campaign tormenting their opponents. However, the AL East leaders have dropped six in a row and 12 of their previous 18 ahead of the mid-summer classic. Their usually reliable bats have gone ice cold, a trend we’re not expecting to reverse on Saturday.

Surprisingly, the Rays have the worst OPS in the MLB over the past week. As a team, Tampa Bay has compiled a laughable .561 OPS, with 53 strikeouts versus just 30 hits. Predictably, this has negatively impacted the Rays’ run production, scoring a paltry 13 runs. Consequently, three of their past four have stayed under the total. 

Things don’t get any easier against the NL-leading Atlanta Braves. Hotlanta has the best record in baseball, winning all but two of the previous 21 contests. Worse, they send the NL Cy Young frontrunner and their staff ace to the mound for today’s inter-league battle. Spencer Strider has struck out 28 over his last 19.2 innings pitched while giving up just four runs over that stretch.

The Rays have been unable to get hits off much worse pitchers than Strider, assuring their offensive woes continue. This one should easily stay beneath the total.

Texas Rangers vs. Washington Nationals
Rangers Moneyline (-196): 5-Star Rating

The Washington Nationals never really stood a chance this season. Amid a neverending perpetual rebuild, the Nats were expected to be fodder for the rest of the league. That’s the case again on Saturday, as they host the Texas Rangers in inter-league action. 

Texas remains one of the best-hitting teams in the bigs. They rank first in on-base and second in slugging percentages, resulting in the second-best OPS. As expected, the Rangers have made the most of those baserunners, accumulating the most runs scored through the first half of the season. 

More impressively, the Rangers have elevated their metrics over their recent sample. The AL West leaders have combined for a .505 slugging percentage this week, yielding 5.8 runs per game. With the Nationals sending Jake Irvin to the mound, those metrics should climb even higher. 

Irvin is a contact pitcher, ranking in the bottom half of the MLB in expected slugging percentage and expected ERA. Worse, the righty sits in the first percentile in whiff rate and third percentile in chase rate. Irvin leaves most of his offerings over the plate, mistakes that the Rangers will make him pay for. 

Even at -196, the betting price underestimates Texas’ chances of prevailing in this one. We’re betting the Rangers trounce the Nats, living up to their billing in our projections.

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