Why Trump’s ‘strategic decision’ not to join GOP debate proves he’s ‘2024 election frontrunner’ – but it could backfire
DONALD Trump’s decision to skip the first Republican debate is a strategic choice as he continues to head the polls for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, a political expert has said.
Trump’s choice to avoid the debate in Milwaukee comes as polls put him around 40 points ahead of his closest rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the race for the nomination.
President Mike Pence, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott are among the Republicans that have thrown their names in the ring – but all are languishing in the polls.
The debate will take place just a day before Trump is set to surrender in Georgia after being indicted on election interference charges related to the 2020 vote.
Trump announced on Sunday that he would be missing the first debate, posting on Truth Social: “The public knows who I am & what a successful presidency I had. I will therefore not be doing the debates.”
It currently remains unclear if he will boycott any further debates in the run-up to the election.
Political expert Jacob Neiheisel told The U.S. Sun that the decision was taken from a strategy point of view, but warned it could backfire
He said: “Trump doesn’t want to allow his opponents to score points.
“He doesn’t have much to gain by going up there in the first place.
“He doesn’t fare too well when thinking about the typical debate criteria – of effectively conveying the message or scoring knockout blows.
“It’s not something he excels at unless you’re somebody who appreciates his brand of combative politics.”
Neiheisel, the author of Presidential Leadership and The Trump Presidency: Executive Power and Democratic Government, said the debate presents an opportunity for lesser well-known candidates to get some exposure or name recognition.
Those who could benefit from the debate include Haley and Scott, according to the expert.
Both candidates are languishing in the polls, and their support is in single digits.
Average polls have the pair consistently behind DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Neiheisel said: “They are the kind of candidates who are in a position where there’s not a lot of expectations around them.
“They do not have the recognition outside the circles where people are paying attention.”
Neiheisel speculated that their performance in the debate could help them pick up support in the polls – but it remains to be seen how much of a difference it would make in the overall picture.
However, the expert revealed that the decision to skip debates does not come without a degree of risk.
He said: “The drawback is that you could come across as arrogant. You look like the guy who doesn’t care enough to show up. But that is mitigated because we’re talking about Trump.”
Even though Trump will not be physically on the stage in the city, he will be brought up at points during the debate, the expert said.
Neiheisel said that the other candidates face a challenge to divert the conversation away from the former president.
“Trump is sucking the oxygen of the GOP race, so the candidates have to talk about how they’re different from him and they’re different from each other. That is not an easy task,” he said.
The Republican National Committee has released the line-up of where the candidates will be positioned ahead of tomorrow’s showdown.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy are set to lock horns and will be in the center of the stage, per Fox News.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Asa Hutchinson will be flanking DeSantis, while Haley, Scott, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will stand next to Ramaswamy.
Ramaswamy shared a video of him playing tennis and captioned the clip: “Three hours of solid debate prep this morning.”
DeSantis warned fans in a pre-debate event held in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, about the risks that the US faces if he doesn’t win the presidential election, per Politico.
The debate will take place just a day before Trump is expected to surrender at a Fulton County, Georgia jail.
Trump’s anticipated surrendering comes a week after being charged over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
It is the fourth indictment he has faced since leaving office in January 2021.
The ex-president has been hit with a rap sheet that includes charges of conspiracy and racketeering.
On Monday, Trump raged: “Can you believe it? I’ll be going to Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday to be arrested by a Radical Left District Attorney, Fani Willis, who is overseeing one of the greatest Murder and Violent Crime disasters in American History.
“In my case, the trip to Atlanta is not for ‘murder,’ but for making a perfect phone call!
“She campaigned, and is continuing to campaign, and raise money on, this witch hunt.”
Trump’s bond has been set at $200,000, according to court papers viewed by The U.S. Sun.