UFC 301 Gambling Preview: Will Steve Erceg upset Alexandre Pantoja in Rio?

UFC 301 takes place this Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, headlined by a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg, and also featuring the return of featherweight GOAT Jose Aldo. It’s an all Brazilian affair this week in every single fight, so how will the Canarinha do?

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Jose Aldo (+120)

I am an unabashed Aldo mark, so take this bet at your own risk, but there’s a zero percent chance I’m not backing my boy on what could be his final MMA fight ever.

Let’s start here: Aldo is the greatest defensive fighter in MMA history. His ability to minimize the effectiveness of his opponents is nearly unparalleled and allowed him to stay at the top of his weight class for nearly a decade. But as he got older and the game changed, that became harder to pull off. He slowed down some and guys like Max Holloway simply threw so much offense that it overwhelmed his defense. Jonathan Martinez is not the guy. Martinez is a good fighter but he doesn’t fight with so much pace that Aldo can’t keep up, and his game heavily relies on leg kicks, which Aldo happens to be the best defender of in the history of the sport. “The King of Rio” returns with a vengeance on Saturday.

Jean Silva (-135)

Silva is a graduate of the most recent season of Contender Series, and in my breakdown of that season, I put him in the “Big Paws on a Puppy” tier of prospects — an elite prospect with high upside. Well, that tier is currently 8-0 in the UFC since Contender Series so I feel like I did pretty well there, and I expect Silva to keep that run going. William Gomis is a good fighter, but I like Silva’s all-around game much better. He has much more volume on the feet and is a better finisher, and I though I doubt this goes to the floor, I think he could have success there as well.

Prop Bets

Alexandre Pantoja -5.5 Point Spread (-115)

For those who don’t know, a point spread bet in MMA means that either Pantoja finishes Erceg, or he wins a decision with the total sum of the judges scorecards being six points or more above Ercegs. So three 48-47 scorecards is a loss, but three 49-46 scorecards is a win.

I did a full write-up of this fight but the short version is that while I think Erceg has a shot at winning this, he still is a bit too green. If Pantoja comes out looking to make a statement in front of Brazil, he might get too wild and get clipped, but if he fights smart, Erceg is too willing to grapple and too easy to get into clinches with for me to like his chances against Pantoja. Add in that even if Pantoja gets clipped, he’s never been finished, and I favor him to get his hand raised, either by clear decision or by stoppage.

Dione Barbosa To Win By Submission (+225)

In a battle of Contender Series signings, Barbosa takes on Ernesta Kareckaite on the undercard, and I like her chances. For one thing, Barbosa was a high-rated prospect for me off Contender Series, with the only thing holding her back being her age (she’s 31, which is too old for a prospect). For another, this is a good style matchup for her.

Barbosa is a high-level grappler and Kareckaite hails from a kickboxing background. Her massive edge in size gives her advantages on the feet, but with the discrepancy in grappling, it becomes a liability on the floor. I expect Barbosa gets this fight down early and it’s a wrap from there.

Parlay of the Week

Very simple parlay this week. We’re taking all the massive main card favorites and tying them together. As they say in Rio, uh vai morrer!

Vitor Petrino (-575)

Anthony Smith is well past his prime at this point and probably actually washed. The fact that he managed to beat Ryan Spann says more about Spann than Smith. Petrino is still a little raw but he has big power on the feet and good takedowns. Either method should get his hand raised.

Michel Pereira (-625)

Pereira has to do this one for the culture. The last time Ihor Potieria was in Brazil, he laid Mauricio “Shogun” Rua out on a slab and then danced over him. This slight cannot be forgiven. Pereira knows what he has to do and he will do it with extreme prejudice.

Caio Borralho (-650)

Betting against Paul Craig always comes with some concern as he has a penchant for pulling out huge upsets, but this seems like an atrocious matchup for him. Borralho is an extremely talented grappler, so Craig’s normal path to an upset is pretty limited, and given Craig’s durability issues, Borralho might be able to crack him on the feet as well.

Parlay these three bets together for -116 odds.

Long Shot of the Week

Karolina Kowalkiewicz To Win By Decision (+450)

It’s strange but true: Kowalkiewicz is tied with Zhang Weili for the longest winning streak in the UFC strawweight division (not counting Tatiana Suarez, who has a four year gap in there). Despite being past her prime, Kowalkiewicz keeps picking up wins, and on Saturday she faces a 22-year-old fighter who is fine but not a super prospect. Iasmin Lucindo has already lost a bunch in her career and Kowalkiewicz is arguably her toughest opponent. These odds are far too big, so I’m taking a long shot on “Kowala Bear.”

Wrap Up

UFC 300 was a great event and we managed to come out slightly ahead (though we were robbed of a finish in the co-main event!) and now it’s back to the grind for UFC 301. Hopefully we’ll do even better this weekend.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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