Tony Awards predictions: Best Musical race remains a toss up [WATCH]
When David Buchanan and I convened to debate our final predictions for the musical races at the 2024 Tony Awards, we were in clear agreement that the revival of “Merrily We Roll Along” would emerge as the winningest tuner of the night. “I don’t think anything this season, musicals or plays, has been as praised and cherished as this revival,” explains David. Though the Best Revival of a Musical category appears to be all sewn up, the race for the coveted Best Musical trophy remains a toss up. Watch our full Tony Awards predictions slugfest above.
We both agree that “Merrily” will add both Lead and Featured Actor in a Musical wins for Jonathan Groff and Daniel Radcliffe, respectively. We are both predicting Maria Friedman to join the winners circle, though I admit to being on high alert for the Best Director of a Musical category to yield an out-of-left-field upset, a la Christopher Ashley for “Come From Away.” David swats this idea down, noting the wide open field: “if it’s not Maria who is the other choice,” he asks. It could be Jessica Stone of “Water for Elephants,” who helmed previous Best Musical victor “Kimberly Akimbo” and is hot off of wins at the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards. I admit that I’m probably overthinking Friedman’s march to the Tony podium, but I’d just like some bragging rights if Stone manages the biggest upset of the night.
The two actress races are much harder to call. Lindsay Mendez is out front in the Featured Actress in a Musical race to complete the “Merrily” acting trio. However, her relatively recent Tony victory for “Carousel” has many pundits wondering if voters will instead push forward Kecia Lewis or Shoshana Bean of “Hell’s Kitchen.” Both are beloved industry veterans who have yet to win. Still, David points out the consecutive wins of Judith Light and Laurie Metcalf as proof that a recent win won’t stand in Mendez’s way. “It’s not unparalleled that you get two Tonys in the span of a couple of years,” he explains. Plus, the “Merrily” actors have smartly campaigned as a a trio all season long, which increases the odds that voters will check them off as a unit instead of leaving one actor off their ballot.
Even more confounding a category is Lead Actress in a Musical, where Kelli O’Hara (“Days of Wine and Roses”) remains hotly competitive despite the “double whammy” of being in a closed show which was also snubbed from the Best Musical lineup. Just one of those factors would normally be the death knell of a lead actress’ chances at winning, but David says voters will still check off O’Hara’s name because of “just how otherworldly that performance was.” We agree that O’Hara’s main competition is newcomer Maleah Joi Moon, making her Broadway debut in “Hell’s Kitchen.” I point out that voters occasionally use this category to crown a brand new star on the rise, and Moon’s powerhouse vocals could make her an exciting choice. The stats are absolutely in Moon’s favor, but David and I are making a risky bet on O’Hara breaking those stats due to a performance we both call “undeniable.”
We can narrow down the acting categories, but at least three Best Musical contenders have a legitimate shot at the top award. I confess that this year marks the first time I’ve ever felt uncertain about predicting Best Musical in all my years of broadcasting Tony predictions. David and I are both leaning towards “Suffs,” but when he asks me how confident I am in that, I can only tell him about 50% certainty. Not great. At the core of our decision-making here is the belief that Shaina Taub will take home Best Original Score and Best Book of a Musical for “Suffs” (though we both acknowledge she is vulnerable in Score thanks to a surge of passion for the play “Stereophonic,” with music by Will Butler). Rewarding original musicals with the top award of the night has been the “most important mission” for voters recently. This is why would-be juggernauts like “MJ,” “An American in Paris,” and “Beautiful” all lost Best Musical, despite many predictions to the contrary. They used pre-existing music.
The movement away from jukebox musicals in the Best Musical race might not be great news for “Hell’s Kitchen” and “Illinoise,” the two biggest rivals to “Suffs.” The dance piece “Illinoise” has plenty of passionate fans who appreciate the unique storytelling, but it failed to receive bids for Score and Book. You would have to go back to 1999’s “Fosse” to find a Best Musical winner that wasn’t at least nominated in either category. “Illinoise” producers will be hoping that the emotion behind their show will create a similar type of Tony “anomaly.” Many pundits have made a break for the Alicia Keys tuner “Hell’s Kitchen” in their top spot, but David points out that for all of the vibrancy and joy in the production, it doesn’t fit the mold of recent winners. “It kind of feels like the discussion we have almost every year about how they like to award the smaller, complicated, maybe quieter original pieces,” describes David. So, without any zeitgeist-puncturing frontrunner in the bunch, we circle back to land on “Suffs.”
David and I continue to tackle tough predictions as we make our way through every musical category. Can Jonathan Tunick finally win a second Tony for his “Merrily We Roll Along” orchestrations? Can David Korins still pick up the scenic design trophy for the closed “Here Lies Love”, or will it fall to the still-running “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club?” Does anyone have a chance of beating Justin Peck for his “Illinoise” choreography? Watch our full lively discussion to hear our complete thoughts on the race.
PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards through June 16
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