What Kagame’s Return Will Mean For Rwanda And Beyond – Analysis

By Samir Bhattacharya

This July 18, Rwanda celebrates its 30thanniversary of liberation. It was on 18July 1994that the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) declared a unilateral ceasefire, marking the end of the genocide. This was followed by the formation of the National Unity Government. And this July 2024, Paul Kagame is also set to win another election, extending his24-year ruleby another five years.

However, there was no surprise in his attaining over 99 per cent of the vote. As a matter of fact, it’s a mirror replica of the2017 national election, where Kagame beat the same set of opponents, environmentalist Frank Habineza and ex-journalist and government adviser Philippe Mpayimana, with a similar margin. Even the disqualification of several opposition candidates, including Diane Rwigara, his staunch and outspoken critic, follows thepattern of 2017,i.e., incomplete registration documents.

Rwanda witnessed arguably the worst genocide of modern times when Hutu extremists slaughtered about800,000 Rwandans,mainly Tutsis, over 100 days in 1994. After the end of the 1994 genocide, when he was chosen asvice president and defence minister, Kagame was only 36 years old. Since then, Kagame has been the de-facto leader of Rwanda. In2000, he was elected President; since then, he has never lost an election and has remained President.

In 2015, his government brought in anew constitutional amendmentallowing himto run again for another seven-year term in 2017. According to this amendment, he will be eligible to contest another election in 2029 and can stay in power until 2034. Ironically, withmore than half of the population under 30,most Rwandans have never known any other leader other than Kagame. While the final results are expected to be announcedon July 27, it is clear that 66-year-old Kagame is set to return to a fourth term in office. Therefore, it is important to explore the implications of his next term for the nation and beyond.

Domestic strong hand to continue

Over the past three decades, the Kagame government has undertaken robust development work. His success in creating a stable political landscape brought significant socioeconomic development. After the genocide, many had written Rwanda off, yet the country has since emerged as a hub for innovation in the region. Between 2012 and 2022, Rwanda grew at anaverage of 7.2 per cent. Kagame also improved the country’s image by hosting international conferences and sponsoring theArsenal football club under the “Visit Rwanda” tourism promotion deal. Known as the land of a thousand hills, Rwanda has also emerged as the leading ecotourism destination in Africa, particularly for itsmountain gorillas and associated tourism. Rwanda is also leading thefight against climate changein the African continent.

His detractors, however, charge him with instilling fear in the country, stifling criticism through intimidation, arbitrary detentions, killings, and forced disappearances. Thearrest of Paul Rusesabaginain 2020, the famous hero of “Hotel Rwanda”, over terrorism-related accusations is the most widely recognised case. However, he was granted a presidential pardon last year, allowing him to be released from a 25-year prison sentence.

In the 1990s, Rwanda established severalGacaca courtsto bring justice and reconcile with the genocide committed. Interestingly, these Gacaca courts handled far more cases than the International Criminal Court for Rwanda (ICTR,). As these courts allowed common Rwandans to deliberate on the truth and justice, the process eventually reinforced the country’s legal system and prepared a base for reconciliation and communal harmony.

Rwanda as a regional actor

The Rwandan army plays a leadership role in peacekeeping across the continent. Yet, his army is also accused of stirring instability in Rwanda’s neighbouring country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Many United Nations (UN) experts complainedon recordthat several thousand Rwandan soldiers fought alongside M23 rebels in eastern DRC and that Kigali had “de facto control” of their operations.

According to some UN reports,3,000 to 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force (RDF)members are still fighting alongside the M23 in DRC. Instead of directly refuting these reports, Rwanda accuses DRC of supporting an anti-Kagame Rwandan rebel group, the FDLR. Rwanda has also been accused of smugglinggold and other critical mineralsfrom mineral-rich eastern DRC into Rwanda.

Amidst this prevailing tense situation of accusing and cross-accusing, there is a risk of the conflict spiralling out of control and snowballing into a regional conflict. Thememories of the two Congo warsare still fresh, and another Congo war will be devastating for regional stability. Moreover, with the conflict next door, thousands of Congolese have already been forced to flee their homes into Rwandan towns. Currently, there are about135,000 refugees in Rwanda, and any additional refugees may also disrupt social harmony.

Rwanda’s external relations and controversial migration deal

In 2000, when Paul Kagame came to power, his primary objective was stabilising the country while consolidating his power and establishing a new political system. He has successfully done that, largely thanks to massive and generous funding provided byvarious international organisations, the Eurpean Union, the United Kingdom (UK), the Scandinavian and German-speaking donor countries, and the United States (US). In exchange, the government of Rwanda formulated a development plan, initiated significant reforms and infrastructure projects, established a comparatively effective administrative framework, and attempted to tackle low-level corruption. As a result, Rwanda has established itself as a “darling” or “shooting star” of international development cooperation over the years. Western governments, reluctant to get directly involved in the regional conflict,trust Rwanda to take the leadership mantle, thus preventing external interferences, particularly from the Russian Wagner Group.

In April 2022,Rwanda made a dealwith the outgoing British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to receive 50,000 British asylum seekers in exchange for 370 million GBP; Rwanda has already received 240 million GBP. While the newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer decided toscrap the deal, Rwanda refused to provide the UK with even a partial refund as there was no such provision in the original deal. Earlier, Rwanda had a similar agreement withIsrael.It will be interesting to see how the UK government takes this refusal.

When Kagame became President for the first time, Rwanda was torn from the aftereffects of the genocide. Yet, three decades later, the country is stable, prosperous and united. To his supporters, he is the uncompromising leader who runs the countrynot as a politician but as a corporate manager. For millions of youths and old alike, the longtime leader represents the uniting force after the genocide and the principal architect of its economic growth. For millions of voters, the trouble across the border is not on their list of principal concerns. The rising cost of living is the most pressing challenge as food inflation batters the country. There will always be critics, but with Rwanda’s GDP growing by7.6 per centin the first three quarters of 2023, and with the nation ranking as the second-best location in Africa to do business in, along with a sharp rise in the human development index, the country’s future looks optimistic.

• About the author: Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
• Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation.