Government statistics have tended to paint a more upbeat picture of the economy than how real Americans on Main Street believe that things are going. For example, more than half of Americans say they think the country is in a recession. We aren't -- officially -- but it's clear millions of Americans aren't buying the rosy scenario.
One of the few areas that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been able to crow about since they took office has been employment. Even as inflation has soared with prices up 20 percent and real incomes down by $2,100 per family on their watch, hiring has been strong and in unemployment has remained fairly low.
But now we learn that over the last year employment was nearly 30% lower than originally announced. Oops.
As Fox Business reported, "the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year."
That 818,000 downward revision is a lot more than a rounding error. Three percent is a rounding error. Thirty percent means we've been fed a distorted view of the economy.
I am NOT accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of wrongdoing. They are professionals. But the model is flawed. For at least nine of the last 10 months, they've revised downward their initial headline job estimates.
What is equally troubling is that the Labor Department overestimated the already-meager job numbers for the private sector and slightly overestimated government hiring. This only reinforces a point I've been making for many months on these pages.
Jobs are being created in all the wrong places.
Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and an economic adviser to the Trump campaign.
New California law inspired by Ubisoft and Sony requires retailers to warn consumers that the digital games they buy can be taken away at any time
Today's Wordle answer for Sunday, September 29
Helldivers 2 players have been tasked with building the 'Democracy Space Station,' a 'gigastructure' of indeterminate firepower that will be aimed by literal democracy
