Does this blended stat make Zverev the game's most effective server?
pFirst-serve statistics have always been split into two categories. Would it provide greater clarity to blend first-serves made and first-serves won into one match metric called first-serve rating?/pp
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the two traditional first-serve statistics identifies that they tell a good story in their own right, but an improved narrative emerges once they are blended as one. A breakdown of the current Top 10 over the past 52 weeks sheds light on what a Serve Rating actually looks like./ppa href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/alexander-zverev/z355/overview'Alexander Zverev/a is the peak performer with first-serves made over the past 52 weeks at an astonishing 72.4 per cent. He is about six percentage points clear of his closest rival a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/carlos-alcaraz/a0e2/overview'Carlos Alcaraz/a (66.6 per cent), and well clear of the Top 10 average of 63.8 per cent. Zverev is on a first-serve planet all on his own./pstyle .table_component { overflow: auto; width: 100%; } .table_component table { border: 1px solid #dededf; height: 100%; width: 100%; table-layout: fixed; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; } .table_component caption { caption-side: top; text-align: left; } .table_component th { border: 1px solid #dededf; background-color: #eceff1; color: #000000; padding: 5px; } .table_component td { border: 1px solid #dededf; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000; padding: 5px; }/stylepnbsp;/pdiv class="table_component" role="region" tabindex="0"table captionstrongFirst-Serve Rating of the Top 10 players in the PIF ATP Rankings/strong/caption thead tr thTop 10 Player/th thIn %/th thWin %/th thRating/th /tr /thead tbody tr tdA. Zverev/td td72.4/td td75.2/td td54.4/td /tr tr tdH. Hurkacz/td td63.9/td td78.5/td td50.2/td /tr tr tdN. Djokovic/td td64.4/td td76.2/td td49.1/td /tr tr tdG. Dimitrov/td td62.7/td td78.1/td td49.0/td /tr tr tdJ. Sinner/td td62.1/td td78.3/td td48.6/td /tr tr tdC. Alcaraz/td td66.6/td td71.9/td td47.9/td /tr tr tdA. Rublev/td td62.5/td td76.0/td td47.5/td /tr tr tdC. Ruud/td td65.0/td td72.6/td td47.2/td /tr tr tdD. Medvedev/td td62.9/td td74.0/td td46.5/td /tr tr tdA. De Minaur/td td55.2/td td72.7/td td40.1/td /tr tr tdAVERAGE/td td63.8/td td75.4/td td48.1/td /tr /tbody/tablediv style="margin-top:8px;"nbsp;/div/divp
But Zverev only comes in sixth place in the data set when you examine points won behind his first serve, at 75.2 per cent. a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/hubert-hurkacz/hb71/overview'Hubert Hurkacz/a, at 78.5 per cent, was the leader in this specific category. Also ahead of Zverev were a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/jannik-sinner/s0ag/overview'Jannik Sinner/a (78.3 per cent), a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/grigor-dimitrov/d875/overview'Grigor Dimitrov/a (78.1 per cent), a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/novak-djokovic/d643/overview'Novak Djokovic/a (76.2 per cent) and a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/andrey-rublev/re44/overview'Andrey Rublev/a (76.0 per cent)./pp
Itrsquo;s impossible to figure out if Zverev is genuinely the best performer behind his first serve, from first place with first-serves made to just sixth place with first-serves won. Thatrsquo;s where the value of a Serve Rating comes to life./pp
Herersquo;s how it works. You start by taking the first-serve made percentage and turn it into a whole number (72% to 72). You then take the first-serve won percentage and turn it into a decimal (75% to 0.75), and then multiply the two to get a rating out of 100./ppstrongZverev's First-Serve Rating/strong/ppbull; 72.4% made / 75.2% wonbr /bull; First-Serve Rating: 72.4 (made) x 0.752 (won) = 54.4/ppstrongHurkacz's First-Serve Rating/strong/ppbull; 63.9% made / 78.5% wonbr /bull;First-Serve Rating: 63.9 (made) x 0.785 (won) = 50.2/p[ATP APP]p
Simple math blends two statistics that have always been evaluated separately and turns them into a new match metric that provides more precise insight into the specifics of player performance./pp
Zverev emerges as the peak performer in the Top 10 with his first serve over the past 52 weeks with a 54.4 rating. Hurkacz (50.2) was the only other player to clear the benchmark of 50, while Djokovic (49.1), Dimitrov (49.0), and Sinner (48.6) were all above the Top 10 average of 48.1./pp
The beauty of a first-serve rating is that it includes four outcomes of the first serve:/ppbull;1st-Serves Inbr /bull;1st-Serve Faultsbr /bull;Won the pointbr /bull;Lost the point/pp
A serve rating also provides valuable insight for players looking for specific areas to take their game to the next level. For example, a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/alex-de-minaur/dh58/overview'Alex de Minaur/a and a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/daniil-medvedev/mm58/overview'Daniil Medvedev/a were the only Top 10 players to appear below the average with first-serves made and first-serves won. Improving their first-serve rating to the Top 10 average of 48.1 would be an obvious goal. Getting more in and winning more will both move the needle in the right direction./pp[NEWSLETTER FORM]/p