ACRA upgrades its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.8%
Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 3.8%, according to ACRA’s macroeconomic forecast. Earlier, the rating agency predicted an increase in the indicator next year by 2.2%. “GDP in real terms could grow by more than 3.5% in 2021 due to the significantly less stringent restrictions introduced during the new waves of COVID-19. This […]
Сообщение ACRA upgrades its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.8% появились сначала на supercar.ru.
Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 3.8%, according to ACRA’s macroeconomic forecast. Earlier, the rating agency predicted an increase in the indicator next year by 2.2%.
“GDP in real terms could grow by more than 3.5% in 2021 due to the significantly less stringent restrictions introduced during the new waves of COVID-19. This has a positive effect on the volume of activity in the service sector, the decline in which explains 60-70% of the overall decline in business activity in 2020, ”the forecast says (quoted by RIA Novosti).
This year, according to analysts, the decline in Russia’s GDP will be 4.3%, not 4.5%, as previously assumed. Inflation will exceed the target of the Bank of Russia (CB), set at 4%, and will amount to 4.2%.
Also, ACRA predicts an average annual exchange rate of 72.6 rubles / $. At the same time, in the long term until 2024, the agency expects the strengthening of the national currency to 62.4-69.7 rubles / $. “In all three forecast scenarios in the medium term, the ruble is strengthening against the exchange rate levels of mid-November 2020 (by 4-15%),” the forecast says.
Earlier, Rosstat tentatively estimated the fall in Russia’s GDP in the third quarter of this year. The decline was 3.6%. In the second quarter, Rosstat recorded a decrease in the indicator by 8%. According to the experts interviewed by Kommersant, in the fourth quarter GDP may return to a decline, the scale of which is still unclear.
About the adjusted forecast – in the material of Kommersant, “ACRA has analyzed future GDP growth as sources”.
Сообщение ACRA upgrades its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.8% появились сначала на supercar.ru.