James Harden doing more than ever is a bad sign for the Rockets

In the short term, Harden’s explosion dug Houston out of an early hole. Long-term, though, they can’t burn him out like this.

One common recent Houston Rockets narrative is that they depend so heavily on the incredible exploits of James Harden that by the time the playoffs arrive, The Beard is all worn out and can’t perform his best.

This was a big reason they traded for Chris Paul and signed him to a massive contract this summer. CP3, also capable of amazing things with the ball, relieves pressure on Harden to do everything on offense all the time.

The bad news is that Chris Paul is hurt. The good news is that Harden has been playing out of his mind since CP3 left the lineup, putting up video game numbers while carrying Houston toward the top of the standings.

The bad news is also that Harden has been playing out of his mind.

Harden has played at least 37 minutes in all but one game since CP3 left action on Dec. 20, because the Rockets have usually needed it. Harden’s style wears out defenses, but it also tires himself. Playing this many minutes this early in the season is a recipe for burn-out.

Is the burn-out issue real, or are Harden’s depressed playoff numbers due to better postseason competition?

Here’s one example that would seem to indicate energy depletion is real. In each of Houston’s three playoff series last season, Harden’s best performance came in Game 1, when he was most rested. He actually scored more than 40 points in each Game 1, shooting almost 60 percent in two of those contests. Harden hit 19-33 of his three-pointers (58 percent) in those Game 1s with at least three days of rest and 33-141 (23 percent) in the other games with one or two days of rest.

That’s more anecdote than data, but it supports the eye test and qualitative reasoning. All that dribbling, driving, and mental processing while running the offense and taking hits is draining, and Harden has never been a paragon of physical fitness compared to some contemporaries. In other words, he plays an especially mentally and physically intense style while not being blessed with a superhuman body like LeBron James or Russell Westbrook.

That makes a restful regular season all the more important: if Harden enters mid-April already dragging a little bit, it’s doom for the Rockets.

It may not help that Harden’s exploits have thrust him right back into the MVP conversation. I and many others thought Harden’s dribble-heavy style was reviled by enough large segments of the basketball community (media included) to prevent a second MVP, but you can’t lock the doors on a guy averaging 34 and 8 for a good team. The NBA is blessed with scores of players putting up unbelievable numbers in different ways, yet Harden’s gaudy box scores might be the most impressive at this point.

And there’s no other NBA franchise that appears to care more about winning individual awards than the Rockets.

We can’t know what’s truly in Harden’s heart, but winning back-to-back MVPs like his rival Steph Curry did (and like old friends Westbrook and Kevin Durant never have) just might be on his to-do list. It fits what he’s said publicly and what we think we know about him.

As Harden edges ahead in the MVP conversation with Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James, will he decide to keep up the press even once CP3 is back? Will the team’s great success since Harden went ballistic override the big picture that has Harden and Paul sharing the load, an arrangement that worked fine last year but struggled mightily for the first two months of this season?

Now that the Best Harden Ever is here, can or should the Rockets put it back in the box in hopes of keeping it fresh for the playoffs? Will they?

Those are open questions, even though a dispassionate, honest assessment of the situation would reach an obvious conclusion: yes, tone down the minutes and possessions to preserve greatness for May.

The Warriors might be vulnerable again this spring, even though Houston is not quite as good as last season. There’s something funky in Golden State, and the Rockets can feel confident against the other Western contenders. Houston really could make the NBA Finals if a few things break the right way.

But they’ll need Harden at his best to do it, and wearing him out now isn’t going to get The Beard to May in the state Houston needs him. He’s doing everything, and proving that he’s one of the best two-guards ever.

If the Rockets want a real shot at a title, though, they need less Harden right now.