US-China tensions - Martin Scicluna

At the dawn of 2019, it is clear that today’s geo-political landscape is dominated by the rivalry between the United States and China. For much of the past two decades the US believed that China would pursue a path from communism to liberal capitalism, embracing freedom and human rights. It would become a reliable partner for the West.

Presidents of the US from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama had clung to the idea that an increasingly prosperous China would liberalise economically and politically.

No longer. Instead Chinese dictatorship has deepened. It runs a surveillance state and ransacks the world’s intellectual property. Over the past year, President Donald Trump’s administration has made it clear that it considers China a strategic rival. Talk about “the End of History” after the collapse of the Soviet Union has given way to debate over the so-called “Thucydides Trap”.

This refers to the 5th century BC clash between the rising power of Athens and the established military hegemon, Sparta. The subsequent conflict ruined both. The theory is relevant today because it suggests that when a rising power meets a declining power, as when Sparta (US) encountered Athens (China), war...