The equally compelling cases for Texas A&M moving up or down in 2019
If you want to talk yourself into the Aggies as either a Playoff team or a Liberty Bowl team, you can do it.
As we all start to contemplate the 2019 college football season, one team makes me feel more conflicting thoughts than anyone else: Texas A&M.
In the same thought stream, I can justify the Aggies as a dark-horse Playoff contender and then decide they’re actually losing four games, about their customary amount these days.
So: Here are some arguments for A&M as a 2019 contender and some arguments against it. Whether you like A&M or not, there’s probably something here for you.
For: Probably the only reason A&M wasn’t a New Year’s Six team in 2018 was that it played a brutal schedule.
A&M was never in serious Playoff or SEC contention in 2018. That’s because the Aggies decided to play Clemson in Week 2 and had to play Alabama in Week 4.
That obscured how consistently solid the Aggies were in Jimbo Fisher’s first year. Out of 13 games, they only played one real stinker — a 28-13 loss to Mississippi State, when neither the offense nor defense got into gear at all. Outside of that 24th-percentile performance by S&P+, A&M was above the 50th percentile (adjusted for opponent) every game and above the 86th percentile six times. If the Aggies didn’t play the country’s No. 3 schedule, again per S&P+, they’d have exceeded their 9-4 record by at least a game or two.
Someone might counter that A&M only finished the season ranked because it won the silliest, longest game of the year in seven overtimes against LSU — on a night when S&P+ only gave the Aggies a 36 percent win expectancy. Fine, but the Aggies’ second-order win total against that schedule was exactly 9, so it’s hard to say they got away with anything.
Against: Well, Clemson and Bama are still on the schedule.
Worse, the Clemson game’s in Death Valley in Week 2. Barring a huge, immediate leap, that’s going to be a loss, because the Tigers are a juggernaut and not slowing down.
At least this year’s Bama game, in Week 7, is in College Station, where the Aggies have a marginally better chance at an upset.
But even if the Aggies turn out to be awesome, they’re going to have to pull at least one huge upset to stay in the Playoff race beyond October 12. Losing to Bama probably axes any SEC hopes, too, because good luck wishing for the Tide to lose twice in conference.
For: The offense returns a ton and could get all the way to elite.
It’s easy to be bullish about A&M’s ability to score tons of points. The Aggies were 16th in Offensive S&P+ in 2018. They’re slated to return (with next year’s eligibility listed):
- Junior QB Kellen Mond, who had his best month of the season in November and looks like a pretty good starter. Mond was basically in the third tier of SEC QBs last year, with Tua Tagovailoa making up the first all by himself and Jake Fromm, Jordan Ta’amu, and arguably Drew Lock coming next. A step forward seems reasonable for the former four-star.
- Sophomore running back Jashaun Corbin, another former four-star who averaged 5.7 yards per carry behind Trayveon Williams.
- Five of the top seven receiving targets from 2017. That’s everyone except the No. 1 target, tight end Jace Sternberger, and No. 1 RB Williams.
- Four of five starting offensive linemen.
Sternberger’s a huge loss. Williams might be, too, but it’s not that hard for teams with good offenses to fit in good running backs. And A&M has a trio of rising former blue-chip receivers for Mond to throw to in Jhamon Ausbon, Quartney Davis, and Hezekiah Jones.
Against: The defense wasn’t great in 2018 and loses a lot of production.
As rosy as that picture is on offense, it’s not hard to look at the defense and worry. Of the top six tacklers last year, five were seniors, and the other — starting strong-side linebacker Tyrel Dodson — declared for the draft. The defense was fine overall, finishing 36th in S&P+, but it lagged behind the offense and was most responsible for losses to Clemson, Bama, and Auburn. Now it’s losing all of its most statistically prolific people.
For: On the other hand, the defense’s biggest problem was a leaky secondary, and that group should do better.
A&M was 19th in S&P+ against the run and 68th against the pass. The Aggies were an awful 124th in Marginal Explosiveness allowed against the pass, even as they were 22nd in Sack Rate. The front got after QBs well, but offenses still hit a lot of home runs.
Most of the key players from the front, who racked up most of the tackles, are gone. But the secondary might only lose one starter in safety Donovan Wilson, who was hurt at the end of the year. The other starting safety, Derrick Tucker, is a former four-star and will be a junior. Charles Oliver, another former four-star who plays corner, will be a senior.
And defensive back is one of the great strengths of the 2019 signing class. Two four-star corners are joining up: Erick Young, a big, talented prep prospect out of Fort Bend (Texas) Rush, and Elijah Blades, the No. 1 JUCO corner in the country. Two of the top seven safeties in the high school class, Brian Williams and Demani Richardson, are coming too.
(Click here to read Williams’ explanation of how he built EMU into a dynasty in NCAA Football 14. If he can do that, he can cover physical tight ends in real life, I’d say.)
For: More broadly, the whole recruiting class is elite. It’s loaded with players who are athletic and physical enough to help quickly.
The class is No. 3 in the country ahead of the February Signing Day. The other SEC West contenders are adding lots of talent, too, but A&M’s incoming class is notable for how cleanly its pieces could fit in exactly where the Aggies need them.
- Sternberger’s gone, but A&M signed the No. 1 tight end in the class, Baylor Cupp.
- Williams is gone, so here’s four-star RB Isaiah Spiller, a top-200 national recruit who should be able to join Corbin in the rotation before much time passes.
- Four of seven starting defensive linemen and linebackers are gone, but four blue-chips at those positions are joining up, including five-star DT DeMarvin Leal.
- The secondary gave up infinite big passing plays, so here’s a class with four blue-chip DBs.
It’s still early to guess at exactly how quickly those players will help. But where A&M’s depth chart is tenuous, there are a lot of eventual reinforcements on the way. And that’s all pending any additional signees in February.
Against: Relying on lots of freshman help is dangerous, even if you’ve just signed a top-five recruiting class.
Everything I just typed above might wind up not mattering much until 2020 or 2021.
For: The best punter in the country is back.
A&M’s not the SEC West favorite. It’s probably not even the No. 2. favorite, thanks to LSU. But a magic-carpet-ride season is at least possible.
Fisher’s a championship coach. The offense should be great. The defense should get help where it most needs it. The schedule’s brutal, but stranger things have happened than A&M beating one of Bama and Clemson and mounting a special run.