Here's are the odds of different possible outcomes in the Mueller investigation, according to online betting sites
- Since May 2017, special counsel Robert Mueller has been probing Russian interference in the 2016 election.
- The Mueller investigation has been a lucrative source of profit for some online gamblers who bet on the likelihood of different possible outcomes in the probe on websites like PredictIt.
- Here's how PredictIt gamblers are betting on eight possible developments in the Mueller probe.
Since May 2017, special counsel Robert Mueller's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, and potential collaboration with Moscow to tilt the race in Trump's favor, has captivated the interest of observers in Washington and around the world.
The Mueller probe has also been a lucrative source of profit for some online gamblers who bet on the likelihood of different possible outcomes in the probe on websites like PredictIt.
PredictIt gamblers buy shares of a given bet, the value of which corresponds to the likelihood of a given event occurring. For example, shares of a formal Brexit agreement being reached by March 29, 2019 are trading at 26¢ a share, reflecting a 26% chance of the event happening by a certain date.
So far, 35 people, including eight people associated with the Trump campaign or administration and three Russian companies, have been charged in the investigation.
For online gamblers, betting on the Mueller probe is especially risky given the secrecy of the probe's inner workings. Mueller only speaks through official court filings and runs a leak-free investigation, often making it difficult to guess exactly what will happen next.
Some gamblers who placed bets on Trump ally Roger Stone being indicted for 67¢ a share made a profit on Friday, when Mueller charged Stone with one count of obstruction of justice, five counts of making false statements to investigators, and one count of witness tampering.
Here's how PredictIt gamblers are betting on eight possible developments in the Mueller probe:
Donald Trump Jr. facing charges by December 31, 2019: shares trading at 41¢ for yes, 59¢ for no.
As a senior executive at the Trump Organization, Trump's oldest son was involved in a number of matters relevant to the Mueller probe — including the Trump Organization's attempts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, and the infamous July 2016 Trump Tower meeting.
Trump Jr. said in his 2017 testimony before the House intelligence committee that he was only "peripherally aware" of the dealings to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.
But Mueller's sentencing memo for Michael Cohen, who pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about the deal, said Cohen "briefed family members" of Trump within the Trump Organization about it.
After Cohen's guilty plea, House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff said that he was a concerned a number of other witnesses had made false statements to the committee, a knowledgeable Congressional source told INSIDER that Trump Jr. was one of those witnesses.
Former Trump lawyer and 'fixer' Michael Cohen publicly testifying before February 28, 2019: shares trading at 61¢ for yes, 39¢ for no.
After being sentenced to 36 months in prison in December for crimes including tax fraud, bank fraud, lying to Congress, and campaign finance violations he said he committed at Trump's direction, Cohen accepted an invitation to testify before the House Oversight Committee.
But Cohen decided to postpone his public testimony, citing threats to his safety and his family. The Senate Intelligence Committee is reportedly serving Cohen with a subpoena to testify behind closed doors, which Cohen's attorney said his client would honor.
Cohen is due to report to federal prison on March 13, meaning he has a limited window in which to publicly appear before Congress. But online betters are still bullish on Cohen testifying before the public.
Jared Kushner facing charges by December 31, 2019: shares trading at 29¢ for yes, 71¢ for no.
Unlike Stone and Trump Jr., Kushner is not known to be under scrutiny for making false statements to Congress. He was, however, present at many of the events under scrutiny by the Mueller probe.
Kushner attended the June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower along with Trump Jr., and met with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak on several occassions in an effort to set up a secret communications "back-channel" between the Trump transition team and Russia.
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