Here’s why the Lakers probably aren’t making the playoffs
Bad losses have put them in a tight corner. It’s hard to see how LeBron James and the Lakers make it to the postseason.
The Los Angeles Lakers’ playoff chances aren’t mathematically zero, but they’re grim. As of March 5, LA trails the No. 8 seed San Antonio Spurs by 5.5 games with just 18 left to play. There’s less than six weeks for LeBron James and his teammates to figure out their defensive flaws and get a crack at postseason play.
That’s both statistically and realistically improbable. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Lakers less than a .1 percent chance of playing postseason ball, which is 1.2 percent lower than the odds it gives the New Orleans Pelicans.
Late February and March have done no favors for the Lakers. LA has chucked away four of its last seven games to lottery teams, including the Hawks, Grizzlies, Anthony Davis-less Pelicans, and league-worst Suns.
Let’s review where we stand.
The bottom of the Western Conference looks like this
The Lakers lost their season tiebreaker on Monday vs. the Clippers
Beating the Clippers would’ve obviously put the Lakers one full game closer to striking distance. But a win was also important in the event of a tiebreaker.
NBA playoff tie-breakers are broken first by head-to-head record, and second, by record against the team’s own division. With a 113-105 loss, the Lakers will lose the season tiebreaker with the Clippers by way of either head-to-head matchup or division record. The Lakers would have to beat them outright with little time left.
How else can the Lakers sneak into the playoffs?
Technically it’s possible, but only technically. It’s too far off to get into the weeds, but LA will need to catch up to the Kings and Spurs should the Clippers pull ahead.
The King have a relatively easy finish to their schedule. With 19 games left, they’ll play the Knicks , Mavericks twice, Wizards, Bulls, Suns, Pelicans, and Cavaliers. That’s eight games against teams unlikely to make the postseason. They’ll also play the Lakers once.
The Spurs schedule is a bit tougher, and the team has admitted this won’t be a title-contending year already by buying out Pau Gasol’s contract and letting him walk to the Milwaukee Bucks. They have easy games against the Hawks, Knicks, Mavericks twice, Cavs twice, and Wizards, but also play the Warriors, Nuggets , Rockets, Celtics, and Bucks. San Antonio, however, has already won the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Lakers.
Their collapse might be more realistic, but it’s unwise to call it likely.
The Lakers remaining schedule looks like this
- March 6 - vs. Nuggets
- March 9 - vs. Celtics
- March 12 - @ Bulls
- March 14 - @ Raptors
- March 15 - @ Pistons
- March 17 - @ Knicks
- March 19 - @ Bucks
- March 22 - vs. Nets
- March 24 - vs. Kings
- March 26 - vs. Wizards
- March 27 - @ Jazz
- March 29 - vs. Hornets
- March 31 - @ Pelicans
- April 2 - @ Thunder
- April 4 - vs. Warriors
- April 5 - @ Clippers
- April 7 - vs. Jazz
- April 9 - vs. Trail Blazers
Those 18 games include just four against teams unlikely to factor in the playoff chase, and just three if you put the Wizards in the East mix.
The Lakers need to beat the bad teams to remain competitive, but there aren’t many left, and they’ve shown a distinct inability to close those teams in the last two weeks alone anyway.
Needless to say, this won’t be an easy gap for James and LA to overcome.