Top 5 AL MVP Candidates For 2019

For the players, Spring Training is the time of year to get back into playing shape and get their reps in before the season starts. For management, it’s the time of year to decide who stays in the Bigs and who’s sent down to the minor leagues. For the fans, it’s the time of year when we all draft our free agent teams – minus the keepers, of course. For me, in this series of articles, Spring Training is the time of year where I make my predictions regarding the 2019 season.

This article will take a look at who I believe are the strongest candidates to win the 2019 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In fact, I think they will finish in the MVP voting in the following order. There aren’t going to be many big surprises here, so let’s get the least surprising out of the way first:

1. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels

If this guy isn’t the first player you think of when someone says “AL MVP,” go to the doctor. If there was a 2010s AL MVP award, he would win it unanimously. In 2012, when he won AL Rookie of the Year, the only reason he finished second in MVP voting was because Miguel Cabrera hit for the Triple Crown. Since then, he has finished lower than second in MVP voting once, and that was when he finished fourth because he played in only 114 games. He is remarkably consistent despite his elite of the elite level of play, and he only seems to be getting better.

Trout, 27, hit .213/.460/.628 (1.088 OPS) with 39 home runs, 79 RBIs, 24 stolen bases, 122 walks, a 191 wRC+ and a 9.8 fWAR. His on-base percentage and OPS both paced the Major Leagues, and he set new career highs in walks, OBP, OPS, and strikeouts — That is, he struck out less in 2018 (124) than any other season in which he played 140 games.

If it weren’t for his batting leadoff for the Angels, or playing for them at all, his RBI totals would be much higher. He also has little to no protection in the lineup, so what he does is all the more remarkable. Oh, and he’s also a phenomenal fielder, posting eight DRS and a 4.0 UZR (5.6 UZR/150) in center field in 2018.

The Red Sox won the World Series in 2018. If the Angels were a contender, having put together a good team around Trout, could he have gotten more MVP votes than the man pictured below?

2. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox

Beating out Mike Trout for AL MVP is no easy feat, but that’s just what Mookie Betts did last season. He looked at Mike Trout’s 9.8 fWAR, said, “hold my bowling ball,” and put up a 10.4 mark.

Slashing .346/.438/.640 (1.078 OPS), Betts won the AL batting title, and the MLB batting title for that matter. He also led all of the MLB with his .640 SLG% and 129 runs scored. He smashed 32 home runs, 47 doubles, five triples, and drove in 80 runs, all while stealing 30 bases and striking out only 81 times in 136 games.

Betts, 26, also won the Gold Glove in right field, as across 1001 innings, he posted 20 DRS with a 15.3 UZR (21.1 UZR/150). These are phenomenal defensive statistics, but it was actually a relatively “down” year, as both seasons prior he posted at least 30 DRS and a 21.1 UZR.

When asked who the best player in the American League is, the answer is still Mike Trout — But one or two more seasons like this from Mookie Betts, and that conversation gets more interesting.

3. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros

In Bregman’s first full season, he was a very good player. In his second full season, 2018, he was a great player. He is only getting better and I believe he’ll be the best AL player not named Trout or Betts in 2019.

Leading the Astros through the playoffs only to get blocked by Betts and the Sox, Bregman had a breakout 2018. The 24-year-old slashed .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, an MLB-leading 51 doubles, 10 stolen bases, a 157 wRC+, and 7.6 fWAR. He is also valuable in the fact that he can play anywhere on the diamond effectively, logging time at second base, shortstop, left field, and mostly third base in 2018.

He finished 5th in MVP voting in a year that saw him walk more, strike out less, and hit with more power. There is no reason to think he can’t continue that trend, and surrounded by a stellar lineup with guys like Jose Altuve, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel, he will get all the protection he needs to continue to improve.

4. Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Indians

The first of two Indians on this list, Jose Ramirez had an outstanding 2018 season that saw him walk more, steal more bases, and hit more home runs. His batting average took a dip (.318 in 2017, .270 in 2018) but his overall production improved, though that could just be due to his disproportionately-low BABIP of .252 (.333 and .319 in 2016 and ’17 respectively).

Ramirez, 26, slashed .270/.387/.552 with 39 home runs, 105 RBIs, 34 stolen bases, 106 walks, 80 strikeouts, a 146 wRC+, and 8.0 fWAR in 2018. He finished third in MVP voting for the second consecutive season, and while that is probably where he’ll finish again in 2019, I like Bregman and wanted to switch things up.

The switch-hitting Ramirez has gotten better offensively every season, and there’s no reason to think he’s stopping any time soon. Like Bregman, he also has tremendous value as he can play anywhere on the diamond, though as the Indians have constructed a great defensive team, his services are needed at third base for the most part.

5. Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians

What’s wrong with a little friendly competition? Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are without a doubt the best left side of the infield in the game today. The only reason Lindor doesn’t win the Gold Glove at shortstop every year is because he plays in the same league as Andrelton Simmons (though he did beat him in 2016), and he’s also a pretty darn good hitter.

Lindor, 25, slashed .277/.352/.519 with 38 home runs, 92 RBIs, 42 doubles, 25 stolen bases, a 130 wRC+, and 7.6 fWAR in 2018. He led all of the MLB with 745 plate appearances and 129 runs scored, finishing 6th in MVP voting. He is currently dealing with a right calf strain that’s limiting him in Spring Training, but despite that, Lindor is still just 25 years-old and is poised to put up yet another monster season in 2018.

Honorable Mentions

• J.D. Martinez – He might have had a better offensive season than anybody last year, slashing .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs, 130 RBIs, and a 170 wRC+, but his mere 5.9 fWAR points to the issue here — He is a DH, which curtails his value. If he can put up numbers like that, something I don’t believe he can quite replicate, and not win the MVP, then I don’t see how it will happen this season.
• Matt Chapman – Look for this guy to start a long Gold Glove streak at third base. Chapman’s 6.5 fWAR in 2018 is nothing to take lightly, and neither is his .278/.356/.508 slash line. He hit 24 home runs and struck out 146 times in his sophomore season, but guess which of those numbers will go up and which will go down.
• Khris Davis – Talk about consistency, Davis has hit .247 every year for the past four years. No really, go look. Welcome back. In 2016 he hit 42 home runs and drove in 102. In 2017 he hit 43 home runs and drove in 110. In 2018 he hit 48 home runs and drove in 123. Don’t be surprised if in 2019 he hits 50 home runs and drives in 130.
• Chris Sale – It wouldn’t be a Logan Barer MVP article if a starting pitcher wasn’t in the running. Considering he’s never finished lower than sixth in Cy Young voting and the all time leader — all time — in career K/9 (10.9) and K/BB (5.31), it’s absolutely necessary to include him in this conversation.
• Aaron Judge – If you saw his 2017 numbers and thought, “there’s no way he could replicate that kind of production,” you were right. He has many holes in his swing, and if it weren’t for injury, was well on his way to strike out 200 times again. Though, he must be included on this list in case a Yankee fan reads it.
• Whit Merrifield – This guy is quietly becoming a very good player out in Kansas City. In 2018 he slashed .304/.367/.438 with 192 hits and 45 stolen bases, both leading the MLB. He’s a late bloomer as at 30 years-old he’s about to play in his third full season, but if he develops a bit more power, he is someone to really keep your eye on. Oh, and he’s also an above-average defender at, like, every position.
• Jose Altuve – 2018 was an injury-plagued year for Altuve, the first since 2013 in which he didn’t knock at least 200 hits. If healthy, he should be bale to put up the MVP-caliber numbers that won him the nomination in 2017.
• Miguel Cabrera – Remember him? His last full season, 2016, saw him hit .316/.393/.563 with 38 home runs and 108 RBIs. He then had a down year in 2017, and right when many were developing fears of regression, the 35-year-old missed most of the 2018 season with injury. Before his surgery, he was hitting .299/.395/.448 with three home runs in 38 games, so 2019 is a coin flip in terms of guessing which Cabrera we’ll see. But when it comes down to it, he’s one of the best hitters of our generation and is not to be taken lightly.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – I’d bet all my money that, if healthy, this guy will win 2019 AL Rookie of the Year. He’s coming to the Blue Jays this season and don’t be blindsided if he breaks out in an enormous way.