March Madness predictions 2019: Duke wins it all, Buffalo crashes the Final Four

Don’t overcomplicate this: College basketball’s most talented team is going to win the national championship.

If you just care about the picks and nothing about the explanations, then this can be a short read.

Here’s my full bracket:

If you’re looking for a justification of these soon to be largely incorrect predictions, then I’m willing to play ball.

East Region

Is there anyone outside of East Lansing who doesn’t have Duke coming out of the East? The Blue Devils would have been the heavy favorites in any draw they could have received, but this route seems like it will provide especially little resistance.

Point guard Justin Robinson is expected to be back for Virginia Tech, which helps the Hokies take down upset-minded Liberty in the second round and advance to the Sweet 16. The Flames advance to the second round with the token 12/5 upset of Mississippi State that everyone sees coming.

In the bottom half of the bracket, let’s use some recent trends to help us pick who’s going to advance.

At least one at-large team from the First Four has won at least one game in the main draw of the tournament since the advent of the First Four in 2011. That trend holds in 2019 as the winner of Temple/Belmont (probably Belmont) takes care of an LSU team that has too many distractions to make it out of the first weekend.

Everyone loves the top two lines of this year’s tournament, and with good reason. The top eight teams in college basketball appear to be vastly superior to the rest of the country. Even so, at least one 2-seed has been knocked out before the second weekend of 21 of the last 22 tournaments. I’ll take that stat, couple it with the fact that recent years have all seen a middling team from the ACC that wasn’t particularly well thought of heading into the Dance get hot and win a couple games, and predict that Louisville beats Michigan State for the second time this season and marches on to the Sweet 16.

In the Elite Eight we get the “sexy” rematch of the Duke miracle comeback game from February. Round two is far less interesting, as the Blue Devils beat Louisville by a billion and move on to Minneapolis.

West Region

The West typically winds up being the region where things get crazy, and the potential is certainly there for that to be the case again in 2019.

Let me start off by saying this: I am not a Gonzaga hater. I think the Zags are really, really good, and even labeled them as the team most likely to win the national title three weeks ago. Having said all that ... Syracuse does funky things to really good teams in March. It’s the zone. The zone lies to you. It tricks you. It makes you believe you’re something you aren’t.

If Gonzaga can figure out the zone in round two — or better yet, if Baylor beats Syracuse in round one — I think they’ve got a terrific shot to win the region. I’m predicting that they won’t, and that people who thought the Zags were a fraud all year will feel irrationally vindicated. I don’t like it, but March is cruel.

Marquette and Florida State both get pushed in the first round by really good double-digit seeds, but eventually make it to the second round in one piece. The Seminoles’ size and superior defense carry them past Markus Howard and the Golden Eagles.

Things get crazy at the bottom, where Northern Kentucky takes care of trendy Final Four pick Texas Tech in the first round and opens things up for Buffalo. Nevada, a trendy Final Four pick themselves heading into the season, wins a 7/2 game for the second straight year and marches on to the Sweet 16.

The wildest March Madness fact currently going is that at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse has made the Final Four in every year since 2012. I don’t think that trend holds in 2019, but I do think we come close. Buffalo takes care of Nevada and then stuns Florida State to become the second mid-major in as many seasons to crash the season’s final weekend.

South Region

Until Virginia proves it can carry its regular season success over into March, their region is the one people are going to get the most creative with when it comes to picking a champion. I think this is finally the year that happens. The Cavaliers have a fairly friendly draw, and the ghosts of madness past seem to be the only things that could keep them from playing their way into at least the second weekend.

Everyone seems to like Oregon over Wisconsin, which means the Badgers are going to get the job done and stop the red hot Ducks in round one. The upset that does happen is right below them, where UC Irvine — which rolled through the Big West tournament — takes care of a Kansas State that will likely be playing without star Dean Wade (or at least without a 100-percent Dean Wade).

Chalk reigns supreme in the bottom half of the bracket until Villanova’s pedigree kicks in and the Wildcats pull off a second round upset of third-seeded Purdue. Jay Wright and company pull an even bigger upset two days later against second-seeded Tennessee.

It only feels right that Virginia’s “getting over the hump” moment comes against the program that was previously the most synonymous with “not being able to win the big one.” The Cavaliers take care of Villanova in the Elite Eight, and Tony Bennett and Wright share an extended handshake where both look equally handsome.

Midwest Region

Here’s another region where everyone loves the 12/5 upset, but not enough people are paying attention to the 13/4. While the 12-seeds get the most love for their Cinderella efforts, at least one 13-seed has won a game in the tournament in eight of the last 11 years. It happened twice last year, and it’s happening twice again this year. Northeastern, a team that dealt with injuries for much of the season but is healthy now and perfectly fits the profile of a March Cinderella, takes care of Kansas and puts an end to the bizarre season of the preseason No. 1.

After hanging triple digits on Iona in round one (book it), North Carolina gets a tougher than expected test from Utah State in the second round. The Heels make the plays necessary to avoid a massive upset there, and then run away from SEC champion Auburn in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky gets a similar scare from Fletcher Magee and Wofford in the second round, but ultimately advances to the Sweet 16 for the sixth time in seven seasons. There they hammer Iowa State, a bipolar team with loads of talent that seemed to find its footing last week in Kansas City. The Cyclones upset Houston — which deserved a friendlier draw — in round two before running into the Wildcat buzz-saw.

The rematch that everyone wants to see in the regional final happens, as Kentucky beats UNC for the second time this season in dramatic fashion. The roles from 2017 are reversed as Keldon Johnson splashes a jumper in Luke Maye’s face just before the final horn.

Final Four

Buffalo keeps things interesting against Duke for approximately five minutes before reality sets in. Virginia frustrates Kentucky all night long with its Pack Line defense and wins a brutally uneventful game that America hates.

Round three between Duke and Virginia goes the same way the first two rounds went, as the Blue Devils are in control of a competitive enough game from start to finish, and wind up winning by a comfortable margin. Zion Williamson and company cement their legacy as one of the most memorable teams in recent college basketball history.