Volker: Western pressure will continue until Russia’s full withdrawal from Ukraine

In light of the fifth anniversary of Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, both the United States and the European Union insist that they will never recognize the seizure and vow to continue sanctioning Moscow until it completely restores Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, as Kurt Volker, the U.S. Special Representative to Ukraine, asserted on March 18.

“In the five years that Russia has occupied Crimea, there have been a substantial clampdown on political rights and freedoms, deportations, arrests of political prisoners, human rights abuses,” the American envoy said during an online press briefing broadcast from Brussels.

“There has been movement of population into Crimea in what appears to be an effort to Russify it and increase the affinity that some in the population have for president (Vladimir Putin of Russia) and for Moscow.”

“It is a tragic situation, and it is an ongoing situation.”

As recently as on Feb. 16, the U.S., the European Union, and Canada, incepted a new package of sanctions over Kremlin-related individuals  and companies over their involvement in continuing occupation of parts of Ukraine. And, according to Volker, the Western pressure in the future will only be gradually increasing unless the Kremlin starts demonstrating clear progress in restoring Ukraine’s internationally recognized sovereignty over Crimea.

“What I would expect is that we will continue to see what we have seen for the past few years,” the diplomat said.

“The periodic ratcheting up of sanctions, if the situation continues as it is. We  don’t want to give anyone a sense of complacency that we are accepting or satisfied with the status quo, we fully believe it needs to change. We would of course be looking at the opposite, at moving sanctions, if Russia were to restore the territory to Ukrainian control.” 

Same principle is applied to Western sanctions related to Russia’s ongoing occupation of eastern Ukraine and its failure to comply with the Mink agreements on total ceasefire in the battlefields of Donbas, withdrawal of all heavy weapons, and peaceful settlement battered by war against Russian-controlled proxy forces since spring 2014.

Volker also reiterated that the Kremlin must immediately release all 24 Ukrainian military sailors defeated in an overt attack by Russian coast guard vessels and taken prisoner in the Nov. 25, 2018 incident near the Kerch Strait.

While stressing that the attack was a brutal violation of international law, Volker also demanded that Russia grand full access of the Red Cross representatives, as well as of Ukraine’s consulate envoys, to the Ukrainian sailors still held in prison in Moscow.

“And indeed in conversation with European Allies, as well as with us, the Russians have indicated that they will not (release the sailors), because they do not want to do so during Ukrainian presidential elections period. It’s a very cynical decision, it seems to me, to hold them as a hostage, if you will, because of presidential elections. They should be released immediately.”

Meanwhile, he added, the United States in its support of Ukraine amid war remains open for new arms transfers to Kyiv. The currently serving administration of U.S. President Donald J. Trump managed to terminate the years-long policy of the Obama administration regarding the flawless ban on lethal defensive weaponry provided to Ukraine, with a batch of FGM-148 Javelin man-portable anti-tank missile systems delivered to Ukraine last April being the brightest example so far.

“Ukraine has indicated an interest in acquiring more of (the American anti-tank weapons) — that is possible,” Volker said.

“We also need to be looking at things like air defense and coastal defense. Anti-sniper systems (Barrett M82s) is something that U.S. has already provided. It is reasonable and necessary for Ukraine to have a modern capability to defend itself and prevent further aggression against its territory.” 

There’s much more that that — the whole NATO, a 29-nation collective defense bloc established in 1949, remains totally supportive towards Ukraine’s war effort and considers Ukraine’s full membership in the organization possible.

“But that doesn’t mean that is imminent,” Volker noted.

“And that is because a country needs to meet all the standards for NATO — democracy, civil control of the military, reform, anti-corruption, contribution to common security, reform in the military establishment, in the defense sector generally, — so there’s a lot to do. In some ways, it’s up to how quickly Ukraine can  progress on all of these issues. It is also up to NATO making by consensus as to when they feel appropriate time would be to actually extend a formal invitation. I can’t predict when that would happen — what is important is that NATO has  declared willingness in principle and that Ukraine keep progressing in meeting those standards along the way, and when the time is right, it will be possible to do.”

He also added that he hoped that Ukraine joining NATO would not instigate a violent retribution of Russia, since Moscow should be interested in having prosperous, stable, and secure neighbors.

When asked about his calculations regarding a possible outcome of the upcoming March 31 presidential elections in Ukraine, Volker noted that no matter who would win the race, the next Ukrainian president would never be able to overcome the strongest pro-Western and pro-democratic sentiments in Ukrainian society, as well as its absolute rejection of any form of restoration of Moscow’s masterdom over Ukraine.

“(Ukrainian) society now sets the limits of what any Ukrainian government can do,” he said.

“In that, whoever does win, will be faced with these attitudes in society, and it does constrain them in what they will be able to do. I would expect any Ukrainian government to continue on the path of strengthening democratic institutions, reforms, fighting corruption,   defending it territory, and insisting on the return of occupied territories to Ukrainian sovereignty.” 

Besides, although asserting that the United States supported the principles of freedom and democracy rather than any specific candidate of Ukraine’s presidential race, Volker also noted that the Kremlin clearly sought to see the country’s currently serving President Petro Poroshenko failing to get elected for the second term.

“I think it is true…and it is something that Russia itself has said, that they want Poroshenko defeated, and that’s simply a fact,” Volker said. “I think that there’s just been a development of personal animosity between president Putin and president Poroshenko, and (Moscow) is just looking for a change.

“I’m not sure however that identifies any particular candidates, saying ‘This is our candidate that will win and we’ll get something from that. And that’s because of what we have talked about before — Ukrainian society has become so cohesive in the sense of national identity and demands what its government will do, so I’m not sure if any candidate, no matter who wins, will be in a position to really give presents to Russia as a result.”

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