Let's Duda Again

So Lucas Duda has been reunited with Royals in order to provide a left-handed bat off the bench. He hasn’t officially been added to the roster yet, but the writing is on the wall. If Duda was brought in to primarily be a left-handed pinch hitter, you might be able to squint and see how this is a decent signing. Especially if Gore is used liberally as a pinch-runner, there will be situations where Yost will need to send up a pinch hitter in his place. But the Royals rarely pinch hit. Last year they were dead last in the major leagues with only 42 pinch hitter at bats. Ironically, their pinch hitters led the major leagues with a .286 batting average!

Duda is a career .242 hitter. That would mean sending up a below average hitter to pinch hit. In 2018 he slashed .241/.313/.418. So, he can work a walk and has some power. I was hoping Frank Schwindel would make the opening day roster and be a promising bat on the bench. Schwindel slashed .286/.336/.506 in Omaha last year. But unfortunately, the Duda signing likely means that Schwindel is headed down the I-29 highway to purgatory. Just like Duda suppressed O’Hearn’s emergence last year, he might stall Schwindel from getting his shot.

And Yost might not just use him in a limited pinch hitting role. Yost said he likes his veteran bat. Last year Duda played in 87 games for the Royals. He played in more games than Mondesi, Soler, or O’Hearn. But this veteran bat totes along a veteran glove and veteran spikes.

Playing first base Duda had a -0.1 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in 2018. Not great, but it was better than Ryan O’Hearn’s -3.1 UZR. The last year that Duda had a positive UZR was 2015. The plan is for Dozier to also play some first base. He had a 0.0 UZR in 2018. With O’Hearn working hard to improve his defense and Dozier providing some athleticism at first base, do the Royals really need Duda’s declining defense?

According to FanGraphs’ stat on base running (BsR), Duda had a -3.4 BsR in 2018. For reference, the Royals’ player with the highest BsR last year was Whit Merrifield (7.4) and the worst player was Perez (-5.2 BsR). 278 major league players had at least 300 ABs last season, and Duda was #237 in terms of BsR. I thought the team was trying procure speed, not sluggishness.

The Royals tried the Duda experiment last year and it didn’t result in flipping him for prospects. The Royals just received cash considerations from Atlanta for him. If Duda does make the opening day roster, this would be his optimal usage: As a pinch hitter against right-handed pitchers. Last year he hit .264 with 12 homers against right-handed pitchers. As a pinch hitter, if he doesn’t get a hit, then he could stay in to take over for O’Hearn at first base. If he happens to get on base, then Gore could some in as a pinch runner for him. This could maximize his value, hide his weaknesses, and perhaps build up his value as a trade chip.