Will Warriors keep foot on gas as 8.5-point favorites at Clippers in game 4?
Golden State is a single-digit favorite for the second straight playoff game in LA.
The Golden State Warriors and Kevin Durant put on a game three clinic to remind doubters that they are still the Golden State Warriors and Kevin Durant.
Will they keep their foot on the Los Angeles Clippers’ neck and take a commanding series lead in game four?
Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday April 21st, 2019 at 12:30pm PST
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
TV: ABC
Line: Warriors -8.5, o/u 235
Injuries: DeMarcus Cousins (quadricep) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.
Los Angeles Clippers
Understandably, Los Angeles was not able to overcome thirty-plus point deficits in consecutive games and lost 105-132 in their first home playoff game this season.
The Clippers are led by Lou Williams with 25.7 points and 8.7 assists per game, Ivica Zubac with 7.0 rebounds per game, Danilo Gallinari with 1.7 steals per game ad Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 1.3 blocks per game in these playoffs.
Los Angeles is 46-38-1 against the spread (ATS), 46-38-1 to the over/under, 20-15 ATS after a loss, 3-9 ATS as a home underdog, 8-12 ATS with 2-3 days off, 7-5 to the over/under as a home underdog, 20-15 to the over/under after a loss and 10-9 to the over/under with 2-3 days off this season.
The Clippers are scoring 114.7 points and allowing 128.0 points per game and 1-2 ATS, 2-1 to the over/under in the playoffs. Los Angeles averaged 116.6 points per game on two days of rest this regular season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors made sure to leave no doubt in game three, getting efficient and productive play from a variety of players in true Strength-In-Numbers fashion.
The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry with 29.3 points per game, Andrew Bogut with 8.0 rebounds per game, Draymond Green with 8.7 assists per game, Kevin Durant with 1.7 steals per game and Andre Iguodala with 1.7 blocks per game in these playoffs.
The Dubs are 37-47-1 ATS, 40-45 to the over/under, 12-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 25-32-1 ATS after a win, 16-20 ATS as an away favorite, 22-14 to the over/under as an away favorite, 11-10 to the over/under with 2-3 days of rest and 31-27 to the over/under after a win this season.
Golden State is scoring 128.0 points and allowing 114.7 points per game and 2-1 ATS, 2-1 to the over/under in the playoffs so far. The Warriors averaged 112.5 points per game with two days of rest this regular season.
Analysis
Once again, one’s approach to wagering on this game should depend on one’s perception of the Warriors’ character as a team.
Golden State showed that they are immensely more talented than the Clippers when the Warriors play defense. This is a team that should not lose another game to LA if they keep their head and motivation in the game and avoid those arrogant lapses in effort that have occurred this season.
The loss of DeMarcus Cousins has been made more bearable by solid play from Andrew Bogut. Bogut is reacclimating to the defense and flow of Warriors’ basketball like riding a bike and could end up being a critical player in the Dubs’ pursuit of a title in 2019 if he remains healthy.
If the Warriors still care about crushing the playoffs and optimizing potential rest, one would be hard-pressed to come up with reasons, aside from too much LA nightlife or 4/20 celebrations, why Golden State won’t win by double-digits.
Doc Rivers will have his team ready to play and Golden State should expect a fight from the Clips, but the writing’s on the wall and Golden State has held the Clippers to 105 points or less in their last four wins against LA.
So if you think the Warriors win, then you might expect them to cover 8.5 points.