Warriors-Rockets series largely hinges on whose math formula works best

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OAKLAND – As the Houston Rockets have clanked repeatedly from 3-point range, the Warriors have felt further validated with their offensive system.

On the surface, it appears the Warriors’ offense relies on Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson making shots. The Warriors believe they maximize those scorers by emphasizing quality passes, sharp cutting and open looks both inside and outside of the perimeter.

“We just move the ball and try to put them in good positions to be successful. I think that’s what a great team does,” Kevin Durant said. “With how the league is playing, I know a lot people are shooting 3’s. But I think a lot of the great coaches in the league put their players in the best position to be successful. That’s what we do here.”

And it became one of the primary reasons why the Warriors have a 1-0 series lead over Houston entering Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday at Oracle Arena. It also factored largely in the Warriors beating the Rockets last year in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals in Houston.

While the Warriors shot 38 of 75 in Game 1, the Rockets went 31 of 74 overall. The reason? The Rockets went 14 of 47 from the perimeter, while the Warriors went 7 of 22. In Game 7, the Rockets (36-of-90) shot better than the Warriors (39-of-80). Yet, the Warriors won by nine points because of the discrepancy between the Warriors (16-of-39) and Rockets (7-of-44) in 3’s.

“Houston does a great job playing to their personnel. We try to do the same thing,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “They’re going to shoot more 3’s than we are. We’re going to try to get better looks from 2. However, the math plays out, there’s only one number that matters at the end and that’s who scores more points.”

Therefore, the Warriors are not exactly gloating that the math played out in their favor. They are mindful Game 2 could turn out different simply if the Rockets make more 3’s.

Instead, the Warriors remain aware of what will give them better odds of having a better math equation. They would much rather take an open 2-point shot than a contested 3. The Rockets believe even contested 3’s are superior to open 2’s.

“We want to create good shots,” Curry said. “We know we have a lot of great 3-point shooters and can do it off the dribble or off the ball. You want to shoot a high percentage.”

The Warriors did that in Game 1 by maximizing four things.

The Warriors leaned on Durant, whose 35-point game marked the fourth consecutive playoff contest he had at least 30 points. With Curry going only 3-of-10 from 3, the Warriors channeled their focus on attacking the basket to draw fouls (21-of-27 from the free-throw line). The Warriors defended on the perimeter as soon the Rockets crossed the timeline. With the Rockets’ outside shots often leading to long rebounds, the Warriors concentrated on crashing the glass (38-26 in rebounds; 8-3 in offensive boards).

The Warriors still remained vulnerable largely because of their 20 turnovers led to the Rockets scoring 20 points off of them. Therefore, the Warriors maintain they have refused to relax when the Rockets missed 27 consecutive 3’s in Game 7 last year or when they opened the first half of Game 1 missing 14 of their first 15 3’s.

“You don’t realize what’s happening until the game is over and you have the stats,” Durant said. “You don’t notice the runs guys go on. You just focus on each possession. Whatever happens, happens. We try to stay locked in on this moment.”

By staying locked in, the Warriors maximize their chances on proving their philosophy gives them a better mathematical chance of winning.

“Over the course of the game,” Curry said, “hopefully it works out in your favor.”

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