Local election 2019 polls – what are the latest predictions for important seats and who will win?
VOTERS across England hit the ballot for local elections on May 2, 2019, which will be a key test for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.
Here’s the lowdown on the election which could prove devastating for the Conservatives.
Where and where are they being held?
The local polls will be held in parts of the country this Thursday, 2 May.
More than 8,000 seats are up for grabs on 38 councils in England, and 11 councils in Northern Ireland too.
Some councils only have a third of the seats up for grabs, such as Oldham, Sheffield, Coventry and Wigan.
But in other areas the council is facing election – including Bournemouth, Bath, Dorset and Luton.
Six mayoral elections will be held: for Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesborough and North of Tyne.
Northern Ireland is also holding elections for 462 seats on 11 councils.
If you are registered to vote you should have already been sent a polling card telling you which station to go to on the day – between 7am and 10pm.
Most of the seats were last contested back in 2015, on the same day of the general election where David Cameron’s Tories won an unexpected victory.
As a result the Tories are likely to do worse than before, and the turnout is set to be down too as no other major elections are taking place on the same day.
Deputy Chairwoman Helen Whately admitted yesterday they would be the chance to “kick the government” and suggested a difficult night was ahead.
Boris has begged Brits not to punish the Tories for Brexit and to focus on their local records instead.
Who will do well?
Certainly not the Conservatives at the way things are going.
Although pollsters don’t ask how people will be voting at local polls, the Tories’ ratings if there were another general election have dropped by around ten percentage points in the last month alone.
Labour has picked up a small part of the votes alongside smaller parties Change UK and Ukip.
ChangeUK isn’t standing candidates on Thursday but you can expect pro-Brexit party Ukip to hoover up some votes from frustrated Tories.
However, Ukip has pushed to the right in recent months and could put more moderate Brexiteers off giving them their vote.
The Tories been being squeezed in the polls by the Brexit Party, but they aren’t standing in the locals, and are focusing on the EU poll next month instead.
Many Brits might not turn out to vote at all out of total frustration over the whole thing.
Or they could back completely independent candidates in the hope of something completely different with a fresh start.
One MP told The Sun: “Turnout will be low – but who will stay at home the most?
“The danger for us is that as the Government we take most of the responsibility and Labour’s core vote is a bit more tribal.”
Another predicted that the locals would be a poor result for everyone and wouldn’t change much at all.
What do the latest polls predict?
Polling experts predict the Conservatives could lose 800 seats, with Labour, the Lib Dems, and Ukip getting chunks of their vote.
Two new parties, Change UK and the Brexit Party, aren’t standing in these local elections but have also been causing an upset.
But the Tories are determined to fight back.
Mrs May told MPs at Prime Minister’s Questions today: “Conservative councils give better services, they recycle more, they fix more potholes and they charge lower taxes.
“A vote for Labour is a vote for mismanagement, worse services and higher taxes.”
When do the results come in?
Polls will close at 10pm and the results will start to be counted overnight.
The first ones usually come in after midnight, but other councils who don’t count until the next day will take much more time to come through.
The first few results could be an indicator of what’s to come later in the evening – if the Tories are in trouble it will hinted at.
The results can be measured in several ways – the overall share of the vote, the number of seats won (and that compared to the number they had before), and the control of councils which could flip sides.
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