In Praise of LGFT C.C. & the Future of 3,000 Strikeouts

I originally intended to write a piece on how awesome C.C. Sabathia was for Cleveland from 2001 to 2008, but I decided other writers can tell his story better than I. Instead I want to write about an analytical topic: the future of the 3,000 strikeout club. In so doing I hope to display just how special the moment is for C.C. and why we should appreciate his contributions as a LGFT.

The Club

Fewer players reached 3,000 strikeouts than any other arbitrary career milestone in baseball. Sabathia is only the 17th pitcher in baseball to history to reach 3,000 Ks. In fact, for most of baseball's history only one pitcher reached this echelon: Walter Johnson. Big Train combined both a voracious appetite for strikeouts (compared to his peers), and an insanely lengthy career. Using Fangraphs' new statistic, K%+, we know Johnson was 60% above his peers in terms of strikeout percentage. On another note: Johnson pitched a crazy 5,914.1 IP, through 21 seasons. Here is the 3,000 Strikeout Club's current composition:

Nolan Ryan 5,714
Randy Johnson 4,875
Roger Clemens 4,672
Steve Carlton 4,136
Bert Blyleven 3,701
Tom Seaver 3,640
Don Sutton 3,574
Gaylord Perry 3,534
Walter Johnson 3,509
Greg Maddux 3,371
Phil Niekro 3,342
Fergie Jenkins 3,192
Pedro Martinez 3,154
Bob Gibson 3,117
Curt Schilling 3,116
John Smoltz 3,084
C.C. Sabathia 3,002

This list is pretty darned illustrious when you really think about it. First, consider all the amazing strikeout pitchers who didn't reach 3,000 strikeouts. Bob Feller comes to mind first, of course. He was a strikeout machine during an era where few batters struck out. Cy Young, despite an absurd career 7,000 innings, failed to reach 3,000. In short: career length cannot always make up for a dearth of brilliance.

Compared to this other clubs are pretty crowded. 24 pitchers reached 300 wins (despite the perennial claim that no pitcher will ever win 300 again). 32 hitters met or eclipsed 3,000 hits. The 500 HR treehouse basically exploded in the 1990s, and now includes 27 batters, with plenty more heading towards the number if trends continue (Miguel Cabrera is likely next at 466). Which returns us to strikeouts: few pitchers reach the number, and even fewer lefties. Only Randy Johnson & Steve Carlton reached 3,000 strikeouts before Sabathia joined them.

Who's Next

While of course brings us to my follow up question: who else will enter the 3,000 strikeout club in the foreseeable future? Strikeout rates are dramatically increasing every year, with records broken annually. The 3,000 strikeout club theoretically should rapidly expand as the 500 homerun club did during the Selig Era. Here are the active leaders in strikeouts after Sabathia:

Justin Verlander (36) 2,759

Verlander is the most obvious choice to next reach 3,000. He's proven himself incredibly durable, despite his age, and continues to rack up strikeouts with a blazing fastball. At 36 there is some doubt about his ability to keep up (keep in mind: Roy Halladay basically went from a Cy Young Award candidate to out of baseball in a single season at 36). But I would be shocked if Verlander fell off a cliff. First off, he would have to decline rapidly this season to fall somewhat short entering 2020. Even if he declined in 2020, if he posts a regular season this year he will probably require less than 100 to get there anyway. Considering his contract he will likely get the innings needed whether he's effective or not.

Max Scherzer (34) 2,503

Mad Max is less of a sure thing than Justin both because he is farther away, and because of his age. It is far more plausible to believe Scherzer catches the injury bug, derails and simply cannot even limp to 3,000 strikeouts than Verlander. Keeping in mind though: Scherzer is basically in one of the most dominant stretches of baseball we're likely to see any time soon. Like Verlander, Scherzer's stuff is still in great shape, and he shows no sign of decline. Barring injury, Scherzer is highly likely to reach 3,000 strikeouts and well beyond 3K.

Felix Hernandez (33) 2,496

King Felix should have reached 3,000 strikeouts. His career path actually reminds me of Sabathia's; both pitchers started young (C.C. debuted at 20, Felix at 19), and reached their peak in their mid 20s. They even hit the same rough patch after 30. However, we have yet to see Hernandez reinvent himself. This, I think, is the glory of C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia debuted as a thrower, hurling 95+ MPH fastballs past hitters, without much guile. He became great when he complemented a good fastball with a good slider, stayed successful for many years. Felix & C.C. both hit decline phases when their stuff deteriorated and while Felix can't seem to get out of it, Sabathia developed a cutter, learned to nibble, and reinvented himself as a starter in his mid 30s. He's road that cutter and slider combo to his age 38 season and 3,000 strikeouts. Unless Felix can do the same: he will assuredly fall short.

Zack Greinke (35) 2,481

Greinke just might make 3,000. When he signed with Arizona I thought he might be done. He's remained a really good starter the past two years, and if he continues his strikeout pace he should finish the year over 2,600 strikeouts. With two more seasons under contract, he would only need to average 180 strikeouts for two seasons to reach 3,000. It's quite feasible, especially considering how effective he's been in his mid 30s.

Cole Hamels (35) 2,452

Basically everything I wrote about Greinke applies to Hamels. One thing I will say about Cole: I am stunned he's 35. I thought he was younger. I remember when he was a young kind in Philly, and he helped the Phillies reach and win the World Series over an upstart Tampa Bay Team. I can't believe it's been 10 years. I am also surprised Hamels has remained as effective as he has the past few years too; I almost forgot about him since he started bouncing around. First to Texas, and now in Chicago. It simply doesn't feel right.

Clayton Kershaw (32) 2,296

Kershaw may be the biggest name on this list. He has not won a Cy Young Award since 2014 (his third), although he may have deserved one since. He debuted young, which is a must to reach milestones. But unlike the other pitchers on this list: Kershaw seems to have hit the injury bug around 30. He's still a dominant pitcher when healthy, but remaining healthy seems to be a problem for Clayton. He hasn't started 30 games since 2015; it will be interesting to see if he can keep his health up enough to reach even 200 wins.

Jon Lester (35) 2,209

I think it's pretty safe to assume Lester wont make it to 3,000 strikeouts. His FIP has crept up to above four the past few seasons, and while he managed to defy it in 2018 (and has thus far this year), I wonder if it can continue.

David Price (33) 1,890

Price, unlike everyone else on this list, has almost zero chance to make it to 3,000. I bring him up as a sign: Price debuted young, like most everyone else, but now at 33 he has lots of ground to catch up. His contract will mean he keeps getting shots, but he needs to start being more dominant AND keep pitching for a while. With wins, you can make up for a lack of dominance by pitching for a good team: strikeouts require you to put in the work yourself.

Chris Sale (30) 1,821

I will admit to partially enjoying Sale's collapse; largely because I feel he has unfairly stolen lots of the limelight from Corey Kluber. Chris Sale debuted young, and became a strikeout machine. However, this year he looks completely lost, right after signing that monster contract in Boston. The jury is still out on Sale, and another 300 strikeout season can cure plenty of ills (and Lord knows its only May). I can't say I am rooting for Chris Sale, but he is exhibit A on why the 3,000 strikeout club is so darn hard to enter.

Corey Kluber (33) 1,458

Kluber is not right after Chris Sale on the active list, I am including him here for reference. Corey Kluber was the fastest pitcher to reach 1,000 strikeouts by batters faced (I believe Yu Darvish quickly surpassed him). This actually, in a weird way, gives Kluber a chance to reach the milestone. I would give Kluber really long odds on the mark; he would basically need to recapture his 2017 magic and replicate it several times.

Conclusion

The 3,000 strikeout club will likely expand significantly in the next several years. My guess is Verlander joins in 2020, with Max Scherzer joining him in 2021 or 2022. Zack Greinke & Cole Hamels are wild cards; my guess is only one (or neither) join in 2021, with a chance they both make it later on. After them the future is hazy. Lester, Kershaw and Sale will require lots of good health to achieve it, and I am far from convinced any of the trio will make it. Kluber's odds are far longer.

All of this is to say: Sabathia's accomplishment is nothing less than incredible. His time in Cleveland was magical, and I am really happy he managed to make it to 3,000, as I feel the club is among the most under appreciated in baseball.