Here are the qualifications for the first 2020 Democratic debates
The first televised debates for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are less than two months away. Candidates will head to Miami on June 26 and 27, in what could be the first major winnowing events of the 2020 Democratic primary race.
Here's everything you need to know about how candidates qualify for the first debate.
How do candidates qualify for the debates?
There are two paths to qualifying for the debate stage: breaking 1 percent in three polls from pollsters approved by the DNC, or tallying 65,000 unique campaign donors, with at least 200 donors in 20 different states.
Who is responsible for creating the criteria?
The Democratic National Committee, which is sanctioning each of the debates. In 2016, when there was a large field of Republicans, the criteria were set by the sponsoring media organizations and varied debate-by-debate.
According to the Federal Election Commission, there are 160 declared Democratic presidential candidates. How many can qualify for the first debate?
Twenty. That's a lot more than the party's 2016 primary debates, which never featured more than five candidates.
So there could be 20 candidates on the stage at once? That seems like a lot.
That would be a lot. Instead, the DNC will break the field into two debates of no more than 10 people on consecutive nights. Unlike the 2016 Republican debates, which also required separating candidates into two separate stages on the same evening, the Democrats will assign candidates to a debate at random. That means that the top two candidates in the polls — currently Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders — may not actually debate each other in Miami.
Who has qualified so far?
The DNC has not announced which candidates have officially qualified, but POLITICO counts 18 who have met the party's criteria: Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Sanders, Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.
Marianne Williamson said she reached the donor threshold on Thursday. She is the only one of the 18 candidates to not hit the polling threshold. In addition, six candidates — Gillibrand, Inslee, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Ryan and Swalwell — who have hit the polling threshold have not publicly said they've reached the donor mark.
What if more than 20 candidates meet at least one of the qualifying criteria?
Then some will be left off the debate stages. To decide who makes it, the DNC will use a series of tiebreakers, with the first one prioritizing candidates who have surpassed both thresholds.
If fewer than 20 candidates meet both the polling and donor thresholds, candidates who have met just the polling threshold will fill the remaining spots, starting with those who have the highest polling average. If there are still any spots remaining, candidates who met just the grassroots fundraising threshold will get on stage, in order of who has the highest number of unique donors.
POLITICO has obtained the rules the DNC will use to calculate polling averages. The DNC will take the top three polling results for each candidate and divide by three, rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. If there's a tie in the polling average between candidates (and it would lead to more than 20 candidates being on stage), "candidates who are initially tied for the final qualifying spots will be ranked according to the total number of qualifying polls" in which the candidate broke 1 percent support, according to the rules.
Who is in danger of getting left out?
It is very possible that candidates, including current or former statewide elected officials, get left off of the stage. In addition to those who have met at least one of the criteria, there are several declared candidates who could get there before the deadline: Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Seth Moulton and Miramar, Fla. Mayor Wayne Messam.
And there's still some would-be "serious" candidates who aren't even in the race yet, but could qualify — like New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock or Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams.
The candidates in the most immediate danger are the ones who have only hit the donor threshold. If one or two people get left off, it’ll be someone like Williamson (or former Sen. Mike Gravel, whose campaign run by a group of teenage activists and is trying to make the debate stage by clearing the donor threshold).
After that, look to the candidates who are polling incredibly low, but who have hit the poll threshold. Candidates like Delaney, Swalwell or Inslee — candidates who have hit one percent in a few polls, but have also posted goose eggs in others — could be at risk.
When will the field be finalized?
The DNC will announce the field about two weeks before the debate, after verifying information from the campaigns. After the field of candidates is confirmed, random lots will be drawn to determine on which night each candidate will appear.
The committee hasn't disclosed how it plans to announce the two debate fields.
What about the debates after that?
The second series of debates in late July in Detroit will also have similar qualifying rules. Details about the debates following that haven't been announced yet, but campaigns believe that the requirements to qualify for later debates will be more restrictive.
"In all of the prior primaries, we saw the thresholds evolve as the campaigns evolved, and this will be no different," Perez said in a March C-SPAN interview. "As we get closer and closer to the first caucus in Iowa, I think it is important for candidates to show they have made progress."
Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine