Kurtenbach: Four thoughts on Warriors-Blazers (one for each game these Western Conference Finals should go)
We won’t lack for storylines in the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers.
That’s good — because we’re probably going to lack for engaging basketball.
So bring on the talk about Steph and Seth Curry, the first brothers to face off in a Conference Finals. Let’s discuss how Damian Lillard, the pride of Oakland, has a billboard on 880 next to Oracle Arena, too. Did you know Klay Thompson used to live in Portland?
Good stuff.
Alas, I’m still contractually required to actually talk basketball, so here are four thoughts heading into Tuesday’s Game 1 — one for each game this series should go:
1. Backcourt Bonanza
If the Blazers actually hold a 4-3 lead over the Warriors in the regular season over the last two years, but as any Golden State fan should know, the difference between the regular season and the playoffs is immense.
Even without Kevin Durant, the Warriors look to have massive advantages across the floor.
The one place you could say things might be tight is in the backcourt. Yes, the Warriors have the best backcourt in the league with Klay Thompson and the better Curry brother, but the Blazers, with Lillard and CJ McCollum, are pretty good too. If Portland is to stand any chance of making this series interesting, that duo is going to have to outplay the Warriors’ Splash Brothers.
Of course, that’s an unlikely scenario, as the Warriors’ defense is ramped up by a factor of 10 in the postseason and the Blazers’ 1-2 punch will be looking at Thompson and Andre Iguodala guarding them in crunch time.
If Lillard and McCollum don’t combine for at least 60 points in every game, the Blazers simply stand no chance — there are no other reliable scoring options on their team. The Blazers have a lowest assist percentage and ratio of all teams this postseason for a reason. Yes, it’s even lower than the isolation-on-every-play Rockets!
In fact, on most nights, Portland probably going to need to be over 70 points from Dame and CJ combined, as the Warriors are poised to average at least 110 points per game against a Blazers defense that has a 109.7 postseason rating and allowed two unremarkable offensive teams in Denver and Oklahoma City to shoot a combined 43 percent from the field.
Do you see Iguodala and Klay allowing a combined 70 points per night?
I don’t.
I also don’t see the Warriors’ backcourt having too many problems scoring points of their own. They might not match the Blazers’ output ever night, but it’ll be close.
And if that’s the case, the Blazers are toast, as the Warriors have the advantage at nearly every other spot on the floor.
Having Durant in this series would likely be cruel — the Warriors would love to have him, but against this opponent, he’s surplus to needs.
So long as the Warriors approach the game the right way, of course.
2. Focus, energy, hustle, and flow
If the Warriors decide to play hard, the Blazers have no shot.
Luckily for the Blazers, not playing hard has been a trend for the Dubs this season.
The Dubs have played down to opponents all year — even in the playoffs, as we saw in the six-game first round against the Clippers.
If Golden State decides to turn in a regular-season effort — if they lack energy, focus, and fight — the Blazers, like any team that reaches this juncture of the playoffs, can take advantage.
Surely in the build-up to Game 1, a talking head will point to the teams’ regular-season matchups. I’d recommend you point to the tape of those games, not just the box scores, because in all four contests, you see a Warriors team that looks nothing like the one we’ve seen in this postseason — even in the games they won.
It’s downright jarring how different they looked in, say, Game 1 of the Rockets series vs. their game in Portland right before the All-Star break where they fell apart in the fourth quarter.
As always, the onus to bring energy will fall on Draymond Green. The do-it-all forward won’t have his hands full in this series — the Blazers’ wing combinations are an unthreatening mess heading into Game 1 — so he is likely to play a lot of free safety in an effort to force turnovers and get the Warriors out on the break, where they’re absolutely lethal.
The Blazers, contrary to public perception, play at an average-to-slow pace — particularly in the postseason with Lillard and McCollum holding onto the ball so often. But unlike the Rockets, the Blazers don’t have the ability to control the pace of the contest — if the Warriors speed it up, they’ll have to run with them.
3. A preponderance of talent
The Warriors will re-evaluate Kevin Durant’s right calf strain this week, and while there is optimism that he can return to the court in these Western Conference Finals, guessing on which game, of course, is foolhardy. It’s a finicky injury.
But if Durant returns, the Blazers are dead to rights — they simply have no one (or two) who can guard him.
4. A big break for the big men
The Blazers are bad to unremarkable in nearly every statistical category this postseason. The reason they advanced is that they were on the much weaker part of the Western Conference bracket.
The one thing they have proven good at, though, is offensive rebounding.
And that could make some games interesting against the Warriors if they don’t heed their own advice from the last round and crash the glass.
Still, the Warriors have to love their matchups at center heading into this series. With Jusuf Nurkic out, Enes Kanter is the Blazers’ No. 1 center. The Warriors should deem him unplayable within the first few possessions, as he might be the worst pick-and-roll defender in the league. Even if he has a good offensive game, he’ll likely give up more than he gets. The Warriors can feel comfortable playing the much stronger Andrew Bogut and the rock-solid Kevon Looney against him. Both should help curtail the offensive rebounding.
The Warriors might also get DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Jones back for this series — boons on offense.
I don’t care if Blazers’ backup center and the only sworn enemy of Klay Thompson Zack Collins did well against the Nuggets, the Warriors have an advantage in the front-court. That, in addition to their advantages at the wings, and the backcourt.
Again, without Durant.
Attack from the onset and they’ll be resting in less than a week.