Treasury yield curve inverts again as trade tensions rattle stocks

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted again Monday, with the 10-year note yield falling below the yield of the 3-month bill, as trade tensions led nervous investors to buy long-term government bonds. The 10-year note yield fell 6.1 basis points to 2.394%, while the 3-month bill yield was down 0.6 basis point to 2.423%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields. The spread between the two maturities fell to around negative 0.03 percentage points. The 3-month/10-year spread had inverted briefly in late March after the Federal Reserve showed it foresaw no rate hikes for the rest of the year, after expecting two in December. The gap between the 10-year and 3-month yield remains one of the most widely watched gauges of the yield curve's slope as a sustained inversion along that spread has preceded every recession since 1955.

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