Giants mailbag: Assessing Bumgarner’s current trade value, when a rebuild will start

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants are 17-23 and already 8.5 games out in the National League West, but they’re shaping up to be one of the most interesting clubs to follow this summer.

New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is motivated to build a winner sooner rather than later, and the July 31 trade deadline represents a significant day for the organization. The Giants have a handful of assets at the major league level who can provide much-needed help for playoff contenders, so Zaidi will have his hands full as he evaluates potential deals that would allow the Giants to acquire coveted prospects.

The Giants parted with Eduardo Núñez in 2017 and Andrew McCutchen in 2018, but they haven’t been a true “seller” in more than a decade. What’s the latest on their top trade assets? When will a rebuild truly take shape?

Here’s part one of our two-part Monday mailbag.

Where do you see Madison Bumgarner’s trade value now compared to the beginning of the season? Any change? (Michael from Saratoga) 

Kerry Crowley: It’s true that Zaidi listened to offers on Bumgarner this offseason, but at least for now, it appears as if the Giants made the right decision to hang onto Bumgarner so the left-hander could boost his trade value. After pitching through injuries in each of the last two seasons, Bumgarner’s velocity was down and concern over his long-term effectiveness was up.

In his past three starts, Bumgarner has improved his value thanks to a cutter that’s missing bats and a career-best 7.25 strikeout/walk ratio which ranks fourth in all of baseball. Bumgarner is attacking hitters, challenging in the strike zone and winning the majority of his battles. If he continues to improve, Bumgarner could sneak into the All-Star Game, but it will likely be around that time when the Giants are ready to take the best offer that comes their way.

Everyone keeps saying they are in a rebuild yet the rebuild hasn’t started yet. Will Farhan wait till mid-late July to start making trades or will he act sooner? (Taylor from Dallas, TX)

Crowley: The first steps of a rebuild are pulling back on long-term financial commitments and reducing the payroll and that’s exactly what Zaidi did in his first offseason with the Giants. The franchise didn’t sign a pitcher to a deal worth more than $7 million and they didn’t sign any hitters to major league contracts. Those were the first signs that a rebuild is on the way, but we likely won’t see the other indicators until the middle of the summer.

The Giants could trade a reliever or two –perhaps Sam Dyson and Tony Watson– in the near future, but they’ll likely spend the next month allowing Bumgarner and Will Smith to continue building their value. Smith is 10-for-10 in save opportunities this year and 24-for-27 since taking over the closer job last summer and the Giants can expect to receive a nice haul in return for his services. Zaidi seems like the type of executive who would be willing to part with top assets in June as opposed to July so that he can maximize the possible returns, but to do that, he’ll need to find partners interested in making deals work.

For all the stress and drama, is it still too soon to tell if 2019 Giants have a prayer of being a wildcard team? (Janice from Palo Alto)

Crowley: The Giants are only 4.5 games out of a Wildcard spot, but the club’s inconsistencies and the overall depth displayed by other teams makes it difficult to envision a miracle run in Bochy’s final season. The Giants’ pitching was dominant over the first month of the season while the lineup was one of the worst in baseball, but in the past two weeks, the pitching has been a massive liability while the hitters have produced more than five runs per game.

Zaidi probably believes he owes it to himself, Bochy and the players inside the clubhouse to give the team another month to get hot, but if that doesn’t happen, the Giants will open for business as the front office looks to exchange its veteran pieces for young talent that can contribute to future playoff rosters.

By many accounts Pablo Sandoval barely made the team out of Spring Training. If the season ended today, is Pablo the Giants MVP? If not, who is it? (Joe from San Francisco)

Crowley: This is a great question and it instantly made me think of the Willie Mac Award. Of course, the Willie Mac Award and the team MVP are completely different (the Giants don’t actually select a team MVP), but it seems to me like Sandoval would be a favorite for both honors. The positive energy and team-first mentality Sandoval brings to the ballpark every day is a testament to his passion for the game, and it’s fair to say that no other offensive players have matched Sandoval’s impact, especially when you consider his smaller sample size.

I think Smith probably deserves some consideration as the team MVP because of how dominant he’s been in the closer role while Bumgarner or even Jeff Samardzija could be in the conversation with another strong month.

I’ve also recently started to wonder who will represent the Giants in the All-Star Game this summer. If he returns from the concussion list and produces at a high level for six weeks, it seems like Buster Posey is a good bet.

I know Zaidi said Mac Williamson will get a long look. But he’s looked lost at the plate after his first few games. How long of a leash are we willing to give? (Coby from Mill Valley)

After homering and knocking in four runs in his season debut last Tuesday, Williamson is 1-for-his-last-17 with five strikeouts and no walks. His plate discipline has been the weakest part of his game over the past week as Williamson is having trouble laying off pitches outside the strike zone and making solid contact on pitches over the plate.

Williamson’s look will be longer than the ones Connor Joe and Michael Reed received, but it wouldn’t shock me if Zaidi moved on from the outfielder in fewer than 30 games, which is how many Gerardo Parra played with the club before he was designated for assignment.

The Giants want Williamson to run away with the job in left field, but they’ve now claimed Aaron Altherr on waivers and hope Tyler Austin becomes more comfortable at the position this summer. There are other minor leaguers like Mike Gerber, Austin Slater and Chris Shaw who the team hopes to evaluate this year, so if Williamson doesn’t force the team to keep him in the lineup over the next two-to-three weeks, Zaidi may not feel compelled to keep him on the roster.

Earlier this season Mac Williamson seemed upset with the way Farhan handled cutting him after other clubs had set rosters. Now we have Holland publicly taking shots at him. Is it looking like this could continue to be a problem? (Sam from Sacramento)

Crowley: Since Bruce Bochy became the Giants’ manager 13 seasons ago, the club hasn’t suffered through many of the issues that plague teams on an annual basis. It’s impossible to please every player in a clubhouse each day, but Bochy has at least maintained open communication with players which has allowed the Giants to keep many disputes internal.

Baseball has undergone a series of massive changes in the last few years, and many veteran players haven’t been receptive to change. Some don’t like shifts, some don’t like openers, some don’t like platoons and none like losing. That’s why a restructuring of the front office was always going to lead to disputes, some of which were bound to be made public.

Zaidi is the president of baseball operations the Giants hand-picked, but regardless of who the organization would have hired, any new executive was always going to face some pushback from a clubhouse filled with veterans who are reluctant to embrace change. As long as the Giants followed through with the hiring of a “next-gen” executive, they were going to run their operation like the vast majority of other front offices do.

Will this continue to be a problem? I expect some issues to pop up over the next few seasons. Over time, however, I think players will accept the new ways the game is run and an overhauled roster will have more of an appreciation for what Zaidi and the Giants are trying to accomplish.