The Bulls chose development over percentages and now it is a numbers game
It was a philosophy that didn’t go without debate.
A game of chance the Bulls were willing to play this season, all but thumbing their nose at 1.5 percent.
As draft lottery fortunes are determined Tuesday night, will it be second-guess time, much ado about nothing, or could the heavily scrutinized front office actually waltz out of the lottery with the No. 1 pick and an organizational-changing man-child heading to the United Center in Zion Williamson?
“I’d rather see the development of the players the way they’ve developed the last month over anything else right now,’’ team president and COO Michael Reinsdorf said in March, when asked about the philosophy of winning games over draft lottery position.
It wasn’t just talk, either, as the Bulls won back-to-back games in mid-March – including a game in Phoenix – that helped alter how the bottom four would finish.
Specifically, all but determining that the Bulls would finish with the fourth-worst record, taking them out of being a 14 percenter.
Sure, the Bulls eventually went into losing mode down the stretch, sitting their starters because of injury, but it was too late. New York, the Suns and the Cavs all played that same tanking game, led by Cleveland losing their last 10 games.
With the new flattened lottery rules that gave New York, Cleveland and Phoenix a 14 percent chance to land No. 1 and Williamson, while the Bulls are sitting at 12.5 percent. That also lowered their odds at No. 2 and point guard Ja Morant, with the Knicks, Cavs and Suns sitting with a 13.4 percent chance, and the Bulls at 12.2.
Meaningless? Maybe, but Reinsdorf even admitted that “every percentage point counts.’’
The draft lottery will determine just how much.
In most drafts – the last two for example – there was very little talent separation at the top. No. 1 was nice, but there was still finds at No. 8 or even 10.
Heck, the Bulls landed Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. in back-to-back drafts, and did so sitting at No. 7.
Draft recognition, however, is just as important as scouting talent.
This draft is not the norm.
Williamson’s skillset has never been seen before. That’s why to make comparisons to other players is all but impossible. There just hasn’t been a 6-foot-7, 285-pounder with a 45-inch vertical leap created by the basketball gods prior to the Duke freshmen.
How that translates to the NBA? It remains to be seen. But the way Stephen Curry has changed the geometry of the game from a spacing standpoint, there are many scouts that feel Williamson can change the altitude of the game.
After Williamson sits Morant, a 6-3 point guard that has uncanny athletic ability and rare play-making skills. His game, however, has some holes in it, starting with an outside shot that looks too much set-shot than jumper.
Still, a rare talent.
After those two? There’s the problem. Even if the Bulls were to defy the odds a bit and move up to No. 3, players like R.J. Barrett, Jarrett Culver or a Cam Reddish are being selected to play the bench for at least a few seasons.
Point guard Darius Garland would be the only player that could challenge for a starting job, but the feeling is he’s a bit of a reach at three or four.
That’s why there’s a wildcard in all of this. The Sun-Times reported last month that if the Bulls do slip into the Nos 3-6 range they could check with the Lakers and find out the availability of point guard Lonzo Ball in a trade.
Either way, Tuesday night could change the fortunes of several rebuilding teams. The Bulls better hope that they’re not on the outside of that by 1.5 percent.