Sifting Through For Bright Spots In the Mets’ Offense
Things have not been going well for the New York Mets lately, and that’s probably putting it nicely. The pitching staff has bounced back in May following a rough start to 2019, but the offense has mostly sputtered in a big way following a decent start of its own.
Manager Mickey Callaway is on the hot seat as he’s watched his team post a 6-11 record so far through the month of May, giving them a 21-25 record overall. The Mets’ team 77 wRC+ in May is among the worst in baseball. The teams below them in this specific category are each well under .500, with only one of them originally expected to be a contender prior to Opening Day (the Washington Nationals).
The Miami Marlins are the worst of all in both record and wRC+, which only adds insult to injury since they just swept the Mets in South Beach over the weekend.
With how rough of a road it’s been for New York lately, I wanted to find something positive to talk about — even if it’s just a quick distraction from what’s been dominating newswires and social media. After some scrolling around on FanGraphs for a bit, it was nice to realize that the Mets have three different players — Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto — all among the top-10 at their respective positions when fWAR is used as the barometer.
Quite the First Impression
Pete Alonso waited too long to get his chance in the big leagues, but he’s taken full advantage of his opportunity. His 1.6 fWAR and 151 wRC+ are both among the top-five players at his position. As one can imagine, he’s out-performing a number of well-known first basemen, like Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Hosmer, Jose Abreu, and Joey Votto.
All 15 of Alonso’s home runs have come on fly balls, and he’s been making the most of that specific batted-ball event. He owns a 383 wRC+ when he puts baseballs in the air thanks to just an 8.2% infield-fly rate and 57.1% hard-hit rate. He’s also punished sliders a lot during the start of this tremendous rookie season. Of pitches he’s seen at least 130 times so far in 2019, Alonso’s 258 wRC+ is easily the highest.
While his 32.0% strikeout rate against that pitch is a little elevated, he’s also accompanied it with a .417/.440/.875 line. The Mets’ young first baseman isn’t just getting his name tossed around in the National League Rookie of the Year conversation, but he’s throwing his hat in the ring as one of baseball’s most productive players at his position.
More of What We Saw Last Year
Jeff McNeil’s 2019 basically feels like a continuation of what he did upon getting called up last July, with some improvements in important areas along the way. The 27-year-old’s 1.2 fWAR is among the top-10 qualified left fielders, while his 145 wRC+ is among the top five.
McNeil’s quality-of-contact numbers are still showing a significant difference from last season — his hard-hit rate is up to 36.9% (30.2% in ’18) while his soft-hit rate is 10.6% (22.0% in ’18). Both of those numbers have led to a .367 BABIP, which is also among the highest in baseball.
What’s very interesting is how McNeil’s performance against four-seam fastballs differs from the rest of what opposing hurlers are throwing at him. He owns an 78 wRC+ against four-seamers so far in ’19, which is the pitch he’s seen most often. McNeil has seen three other pitches at least 75 times (changeup, sinker, slider), with his wRC+ for each of those being at least 150.
Scooter Is Back
Right field is rather top heavy with regard to elite production. Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, and George Springer have each produced at least 2.9 fWAR while hitting 17-plus home runs, 40-plus RBI, and scoring 40-plus runs. But the guy right underneath that dominant trio when looking at cumulative fWAR? That’d be Michael Conforto, whose 1.9 fWAR is better than players like Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, and many others.
Conforto’s recent concussion and trip to the injured list will hopefully only put a slight halt on his season, but it’s undeniable to see that he’s truly back after a slow start to 2018 upon coming off that scary shoulder injury.
Since last year’s All-Star break, the 26-year-old is slashing .273/.375/.533 with 26 homers, 24 doubles, 73 RBI, and 70 runs scored in just 472 plate appearances, which comes out to a 147 wRC+. After posting a career-worst 43.8% ground-ball rate last season, that number has come all the way down to 26.4% at the moment, which has led to sizable increases in fly-ball rate (36.6% to 46.2%) and line-drive rate (19.6% to 27.4%).
For most of his career, Conforto has been a more productive hitter at Citi Field than on the road, except for last year (98 wRC+ at home, 138 on the road). He’s back to dominating in Queens thus far in 2019, though (205 wRC+ at home, 116 on the road).