Evaluation of model performance to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement
by Andrew S. Allegretti, Nathan E. Frenk, Darrick K. Li, Harish Seethapathy, Xavier F. Vela Parada, Joshua Long, Paul Endres, Daniel S. Pratt, Raymond T. Chung, Suvranu Ganguli, Zubin Irani, Kei Yamada
Background/AimsThe MELD score was developed to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. Given changes in practice patterns and development of new prognostic tools in cirrhosis, we aimed to evaluate common models to predict mortality after TIPS placement.
MethodsAnalysis of consecutive patients who underwent TIPS placement for ascites or bleeding. Performance to predict 90-day mortality was assessed by C statistic for six models (MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C ACLF, Child-Pugh, Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin, and Emory score). Added predictive value to MELD score was assessed for univariate predictors of 90-day mortality. Stratified analysis by TIPS indication, emergent placement status, and TIPS stent type was performed.
Results413 patients were analyzed (248 with variceal bleeding, 165 with refractory ascites). 90-day mortality was 27% (113/413). Mean MELD score was 15 ± 7.9. MELD score best predicted mortality for all patients (c = 0.779), for variceal bleeding (c = 0.844), and for emergent TIPS (c = 0.817). CLIF-C ACLF score best predicted mortality for refractory ascites (c = 0.707). Addition of sodium to the MELD score did not improve predictive value across multiple strata. Addition of hemoglobin improved MELD score’s predictive value in variceal bleeding. Addition of age improved MELD score’s predictive value in refractory ascites.
ConclusionsMELD score best predicted 90-day mortality. Addition of sodium to the MELD score did not improve its performance, though mortality prediction was improved using Age-MELD for ascites and Hemoglobin-MELD for bleeding. An individualized risk stratification approach may be best when considering candidates for TIPS placement.