Kurtenbach: Three reasons the Raptors could beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals

The quants in Las Vegas are extremely good at their jobs and right now, they have the Warriors as strong favorites to win the NBA Finals over the Toronto Raptors.

To make $100 on the Dubs to win it all, you’d have to wager $280. The number has been as high as $310.

If the Warriors win, it’ll be a fourth title in five years. And while I’m on the record predicting Golden State to win in six games, this series — unlike the Western Conference Finals — is anything but a sure bet.

The Raptors are the real deal, folks, and it wouldn’t stun me if they made my prediction look foolish.

Here are three reasons why the Raptors could beat the Warriors and end the dynasty:

1. Perimeter defense

With Kevin Durant out, the Warriors are playing a primarily perimeter-based offensive game — their five-man motion often has four or five players outside the 3-point arc, moving around and setting picks as to set up open shots for primarily Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

This is the style that won the Warriors a title in 2015, 73 regular-season games in 2016, and the Western Conference Finals against the Blazers.

It could absolutely beat the Raptors.

But don’t think it’ll be easy.

The Raptors’ defense is absolutely stifling, as it features three of the best wing defenders in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard (arguably the greatest perimeter defender of all time), Danny Green, and Pascal Siakam.

The Raptors will, like the Warriors, switch a ton on the defensive side of the ball, but having three elite, lock-down defenders on the wing creates serious issues for Golden State.

Unless the Warriors hunt matchups, slowing down their all-important pace considerably, there might not be much room to breathe for Curry and Thompson, and with Durant out, if either of those players has less-than-good games, Toronto can steal a game (or two, or four).

And even if Durant comes back, there’s no guarantee against this Toronto defense (which has posted a stellar 104 defensive rating the last two rounds against two of the better teams in the NBA, Philadelphia and Milwaukee) that he’ll be the hyper-efficient scorer that he has been for the last three years. Leonard can knock even the best off their game.

2. Kawhi’s on fire

Leonard is arguably the best player in the NBA, as he’s become an elite offensive player in addition to being a defensive force.

Leonard has refined his offensive game, bit by bit, every year of his career. This postseason has been his most impressive offensive performance to date: Over the last two rounds, he’s averaged 32.4 points per game on a 60.7 true shooting percentage with 4.2 assists per contest.

Those numbers are rendered more impressive by the fact that so much of the Raptors’ offense is merely giving Leonard the ball and hoping that things work out. So far, they have, as Leonard has shown, again and again, that he’s an elite isolation scorer. Over the last two rounds, more than half of Leonard’s shots have been pull-ups with 64 percent coming off of more than three dribbles.

Fifty-one percent of all of his shots in the last two rounds have come with tight defense (within four feet, per the NBA’s statistics).

The Warriors can throw a variety of bodies at Leonard, but if he can repeat his performances of the last two rounds — or even improve — Golden State is going to have problems, because isolation scorers can singlehandedly control the pace of the game and that’s something that the Warriors must do to win.

The Warriors will want to get out and run in the NBA Finals — an alternating half-court game favors Toronto. But so much of that effort to push the pace starts on the defensive end, as creating live-ball turnovers is the easiest way to create transition opportunities.

But Leonard is so calm, cool, and collected with the ball in his hands that it’s hard to imagine the Warriors creating too many of those fast breaks. Indeed, the Raptors have posted an impressive 7.7 turnover percentage off isolation this postseason.

There are still opportunities to push off missed shots, but if Leonard doesn’t miss…

3. Kevin Durant’s status

If Durant enters this series, the complexion of the NBA Finals changes. Of course, it does — the Warriors would be adding an all-time great in his prime to their lineup, giving them two of the three best players on the court and, by my count, four of the top five.

Adding Durant also gives the Warriors a better shot in a drag-it-out game, as he can, in theory, match Leonard basket-for-basket or even exceed him. If the Warriors can meld their five-man motion offense and transition prowess with Durant’s ruthless isolation dominance, it won’t matter how good the Raptors defense — that’s firepower that the Raptors cannot match. It would effectively rule the first two points of this column moot.

But we do not know if Durant is going to enter this series. He’s ruled out for Game 1 and seems unlikely to play in Game 2 — after that, it’s anyone’s guess. And it’s difficult to say how the Warriors would integrate Durant into the fold — they’ve struggled, at times, with the contrasting styles of play.

The best-case scenario for the Warriors seems most likely at the moment: Durant does play in the Finals and gives the Warriors the second kind of smoke that puts them over the top.

But if that does not come to pass — either because Durant doesn’t play or because there’s awkwardness in his integration — the Raptors will celebrate.

So much for those “better without Durant” takes.