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Silver had Trump at 65% to win, before the debate!
Nate Silver’s forecast has Trump ay 65% and Biden 35%. This seems about right to me, reflecting that while the popular vote is close, Trump leads in all the battleground states. The Economist has Trump at 70% and 538 has him at just 49%. The 538 model seems far too cautious. Basically they are hedging […]
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