I Like Big Bunts and I Cannot Lie

Bunting is dumb. It has been well documented that giving up an out to advance the runner decreases run expectancy. Eating Taco Bell also decreases life expectancy, but show me cheesy Gordita and you can throw statistics right out the window.

I don't know what statistics Tito uses regarding bunting. In my heart, I like to believe Tito knows it is bad for the team; like a failed diet, he just can't stay away from the temptation. I have to admit, I'm happy they can't stay away from it. There are few joys in life as great as watching Bebo try to pick up speed like a runaway freight train, or Nyjer Morgan getting in a tussle with a bat instead of a player.

Maybe if my first memories of Cleveland sports hadn't been during the early 2000's, I would feel worse about bunting. The only positive memories I have of growing up on Cleveland sports end with losses. I don't blame you for celebrating the parts of Tribe baseball that give them a better chance to win. Still, I can't get over my love of bunting.

If statistics are powerful enough to revolutionize Jeopardy, they are good enough to help your baseball team win more games. The statistical impact of bunting is the equivalent of pinch hitting Kevin Plawecki for Fransico Lindor facing a righty in a high-leverage situation.* The beautiful thing about baseball is that 999,999,999/1,000,000,000 this is the wrong move to make, but that one other time is when Plawecki hits a homer and Lindor would have grounded into an inning-ending DP. There is never any way to know how any "what-ifs" would play out. That is why you should never, ever bunt. Even if bunting would lead to a little-league home run, you are much more likely to just hit a home run swinging. Even if Kevin Plawecki hits a home run in the pinch hit situation, you always stick with Lindor. But I just can't get over how you can accidentally help your team, even when you make the indisputable wrong choice.

Baseball is a game of shouldn'ts. According to run differential, the Tribe shouldn't have as many wins as it does right now. Jose Ramirez shouldn't have such a low BABIP. The home run Jake Bauers hit on Tuesday shouldn't have left the yard. Finger guns shouldn't be able to give baserunners the invincibility buff they obviously get every time they use it. The biggest shouldn't is the fact that our beloved baseball team shouldn't make the playoffs. But even if we make all the wrong moves going forward, it might be that we unintentionally end up doing something great along the way.

I was at the game last night. It was a dazzling display of long bombs, strange defense, a parade of pitchers, and a home team benefitting rain delay (for once). I wanted to write something about it, because the game was as much fun as I've had watching the team all year. Lindor was hugging pitchers after being caught in a pickle, some rapid fire finger guns with no kick-back were shot, Byron Buxton tried to knock out the drum with a homer just to incite a barrage of homers from our team. There are so many moments that I should have enjoyed more than the bunts. But my two favorite plays (before I left during the delay) were the bunts. One by Jake Bauers that settled in for a hit before Sano could lumber over to it, and the other a sac bunt by Mercado that was an inexcusably bad situational play. I found them exciting, it was a chance to see if we could do something we statistically shouldn't and turn it into a success. It felt like exactly what the team was trying to do all night. They were having fun, Kip was stealing leaf blowers and everyone in the dugout was cheering when somebody went the distance. And they were doing it all even when the statistics told them they shouldn't. They found a way to take the game to the Twins. So thank you bunting, for reminding me that even when we are floundering in terrible off season decision and miserable play, baseball can still be fun and exciting.

*The equivalence of the pinch hit vs. the bunt is exact and indisputable. I simply took WAR of players, divided by clutch hitting, plus how many pieces of Tito's bubblegum tobacco they can fit in their mouth per inning divided by the run probability plus pew speed