High Chance for Tropical System to Form in Eastern Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two areas in the Atlantic Basin. The closest one to the U.S. is located in the Bahamas and only has a 10% chance that it will develop into a tropical system as it tracks east of Florida. This tropical wave poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

The second area is a broad area of low pressure which is located well into the eastern Atlantic Ocean but has higher chance at 70% that it will become a tropical system in the next 5 days. The NHC is expecting this to become a tropical depression by this weekend as the current path takes it westward towards the Caribbean Sea and the Lesser Antilles Islands. I think this wave has a decent threat to become the next named storm of the season, “Chantal”. Impacts to the U.S and whether this disturbance reaches the Gulf is still unknown at this time. Some models show the system dissolving over the Bahamas, while others keep the system organizing further but staying east of Florida as it takes similar path to the first tropical wave. As of this time, the threat for this disturbance to reach the Gulf look very slim.