Like daughter, like father: Billy Ray Cyrus may win VMA for Video of the Year 5 years after Miley Cyrus

It wasn’t a big surprise when “Old Town Road” by Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus earned a Video of the Year nomination at the MTV Video Music Awards. That now opens the door for a potentially historic outcome. Miley Cyrus won the top prize for “Wrecking Ball” in 2014, so if “Old Town Road” prevails, it would be the first time a parent and child have both won that honor. (See the full list of VMA nominees here.)

The VMAs are all about popularity, so “Old Town Road” should be unbeatable right? It has spent a record-tying 16 weeks at number-one on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, and it has shattered streaming records along the way. But Lil Nas X is a newcomer and Billy Ray Cyrus isn’t usually the artist of choice for MTV’s younger target audience.

What matters is which artist can mobilize the most fans to vote online, and rival nominees Ariana Grande (“Thank U, Next”) and Taylor Swift (“You Need to Calm Down”), both past VMA winners, have proven over the years that they can drive fans to check off their names. Same with the Jonas Brothers (“Sucker”). And breakout star Billie Eilish (“Bad Guy”) has made just as big a splash in the music industry as Lil Nas X.

Nevertheless, “Old Town Road” is still going strong, so with about four months of chart-topping popularity, it might be perfectly positioned to capitalize on its success. If so, Billy Ray could follow in Miley’s VMAs footsteps just like Miley followed in Billy Ray’s musical footsteps.