Will Lil Nas X (‘Old Town Road’) break VMA curse against new artists? He’d be the 2nd in 20 years to win for his breakthrough
As of this writing Lil Nas X continues to extend his record run on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, spending an unprecedented 18 weeks at number-one with “Old Town Road” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus. And this is happening just as music fans are voting for the MTV Video Music Awards. So having the most popular song in the country right now should make him a lock to win this popular vote, right? You might think so, but new artists rarely win Video of the Year. Watch Lil Nas X’s nominated video above.
Young artists win at the VMAs all the time, but the last time a brand new artist won for their breakthrough was 13 years ago: in 2006 Panic! at the Disco won for their video for “I Write Sins Not Tragedies,” the second single from their debut album and their first top-10 hit. You could argue that Camila Cabello was also breakthrough artist when she won last year for “Havana,” but she had already established herself (and won VMAs) as a member of the girl group Fifth Harmony by then. Really, “I Write Sins” was the only time the video for a true breakthrough song won in the last 20 years.
Before that you have to go back to Jamiroquai‘s “Virtual Insanity” in 1997 for a breakthrough hit, but even that group had already put out three albums by then. Sinead O’Connor was on her second album when she won for “Nothing Compares 2 U” in 1990, but that was certainly her US breakthrough since it was her first song to chart on the Billboard Hot 100, where it reached number-one. Still, neither of them was quite as new as Lil Nas X is now.
The reason breakthrough songs struggle to win might be a matter of limited fandom. At the VMAs, it helps to have an established, devoted fan base, especially in the era of social media and online voting. Lil Nas X may not have had enough time yet to develop that kind of following, even though he has one of the biggest songs of all time. That may be why he’s trailing in our racetrack odds. According to the combined predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users, Ariana Grande (“Thank U, Next”) has the edge for Video of the Year. Do you agree with our forecasts, or is Lil Nas X just too big to fail even though he’s brand new to the scene?
Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 26. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.