Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model

by Lara J. Wolfson, Vincent J. Daniels, Matthew Pillsbury, Zafer Kurugöl, Cuneyt Yardimci, Jeffrey Kyle, Ener Cagri Dinleyici

In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.

We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting.

Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20–30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine.

Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease.