Mets Have Good Chance at Playoffs if Able To Evade Dodgers Series

The New York Mets (76-71) have a real shot to make a run at the second NL Wild Card spot if they are able to somehow get out of their weekend series with the Los Angeles Dodgers alive.

What would alive mean exactly? Well, obviously they can’t get swept because with the Chicago Cubs facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, the likelihood is the Cubs are going to win the remaining two games of their series with Friday’s 17-7 victory making matters even less promising for the Mets. The Mets’ 9-2 loss on Friday pushed them back to three games behind in the Wild Card race.

For the Mets, their worst-case scenario would be that they would lose each of the next two games and the Cubs win the next two. That would put them five back in the race and lower their elimination number to nine with 13 games left in the season.

That elimination number would effectively eliminate the Mets’ hopes of making the playoff as even if the Mets won 10 of their remaining 13, the Cubs would merely have to win six games to secure a playoff spot, meaning they could play sub-.500 baseball down the stretch and still make the playoffs.

This is not even accounting for the fact that the Mets currently are trailing the Philadelphia Phillies (2.5 GB) and Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 GB), who would both be in stronger position to capitalize if the Cubs were to falter.

However, if the Mets can remain three games out, either by winning the next two games or the 65-83 Pirates finding a way to win a game, the Mets would actually be in a very strong position to make the playoffs.

Following the Mets’ tough series with the Dodgers, they head to Colorado to face the 63-85 Rockies who are only better than the Miami Marlins in the NL right now. They then get to follow that up with a series against the Cincinnati Reds who are 69-79.

After that, the Mets return home to face the worst NL team, the Marlins, for four games before facing the Atlanta Braves to finish off the season.

Meanwhile, the Cubs aren’t facing a brutal schedule by any means, but they will face the St. Louis Cardinals (83-64) seven more times this season and will finish the season in St. Louis.

With the NL Central still separated by a mere four games, the Cardinals will at least be making a full-throttle effort in the first series, which will last four games, with the goal of burying their division rivals.

The Cardinals also will be facing the Washington Nationals this upcoming week which could give the Mets even a possible crack at the first Wild Card spot, potentially giving them a chance at home-field advantage for a potential Wild Card game.

In terms of the one team that would possibly be in better position to capitalize with all of these complications, the Milwaukee Brewers happen to not be facing a team over .500 the remainder of the season after this weekend. With Christian Yelich out for the rest of the year, though, it remains to be seen just how good the Brewers actually are without him.

If the Mets find a way to win the next two games and/or a way to remain three games back of the second NL Wild Card spot, their 14.2% playoff odds according to FanGraphs have a good shot of exponentially increasing on a regular basis down the stretch in what could ultimately lead to them seeing the playoffs for the first time since 2016.