Whisoxman's Off-Season Plan

Whisoxman’s Offseason Plan

Introduction

My plan here is to fill all the team's immediate needs: statistical like OBP and walks, positional like right field, rotation and DH. While my salary will be a bit above the $120,000 guideline, it would only require modest changes (hopefully with system guys) for the 2021 season when several guys will be off the books.

Arbitration-eligible:

Write "tender" or "non-tender" after each of the following names, and explain any particularly tough choices. Remember that arb-eligible players can be signed to contract extensions, or be traded, before or after tendering a contract.

• Alex Colomé, $10.3 million: Yes, but reluctantly so. He could still be a useful reliever this year, whether it's as a closer or set-up man.
• Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2 million: No. I like Sanchez a lot, and he's great for camaraderie for the team. It's just hard to envision much playing time with Madrigal seemingly a sure-fire lock and Mendick will be a cheaper albeit unproven option as a reserve.
• James McCann, $4.9 million: Yes. He'd make a decent starting catcher, but for my plan, he's the personal catcher for Giolito and the #2 catcher for double-headers. He's worth his weight in gold for that first reason alone.
• Carlos Rodón, $4.5 million: Yes. His becoming available could be the equivalent of a July mid-season trade acquisition without relinquishing any prospects. Look at trading him next off-season if all five spots appear solid.
• Leury García, $4 million: Yes. He comes at a better price than Sanchez, and can play both outfield and infield positions. While not as good defensively as Engel, he has a better throwing arm to keep runners honest.
• Evan Marshall, $1.3 million: Yes. It's hard to deny his decent work out of the pen last year, and he is ideally suited for low-leverage relief work.

Impending Free Agents

Re-sign, cut loose, or extend a qualifying offer ($17.8 million)? (Explain any tough or complicated calls.)

• José Abreu (2019 salary: $16 million)--Re-sign (see below).
• Jon Jay (2019 salary: $4 millon)--No. Last years's hope to have the Revolutionary quartet of Ryan Burr, Ian Hamilton, Jon Jay and possiblly Spencer Adams on the squad at the same time didn't work out.
• Iván Nova (2019 salary: $9,166,167)--No. I like the guy, but he was basically 2019's version of 2018's James Shields.
• Hector Santiago (2019 salary: $2 million)--No, but he could be open to a minor league contract.

Free agents

Jose Abreu: Two years for $28 million, with a third year for an additional $14 million. The guy's been a great teammate and consummate pro, as well as a role model for everyone on the team -- especially Jimenez and Moncada (and Robert next year). Plus, he led the league in RBIs. The value of 32-year-old first basemen is waning, but this seems like a deal both parties could live with.

Yasmani Grandal: Four years for $84 million. He was offered a $16 million/yr. contract last year by the Mets but turned it down. He's far-and-away the best catcher on the open market, and will be much in demand. He checks all the White Sox boxes: (1) With 109 walks, he walked more than Moncada, Abreu and Jimenez combined last year, (2) his defense was among the best at his position, (3) he's a Cuban and (4) he's a highly-valued team player, and (5) could fill in at first base occasionally to give Abreu a break from the position. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the Sox won't lose a draft pick and international bonus pool money if they sign him.

J.D. Martinez: Four years for $100 million. The ultimate question is if he will opt out of his current contract with the Red Sox. In the last three years, he's averaged combined for a .313/.389/.619 with 32 doubles, two triples, 43 homers, 113 RBIs & 71 walks. We won't be competing against too many teams for his services, and his combination of consistency, performance and ability to mentor young players like Mookie Betts should make him a perfect fit for the South Side. This acquisition, along with Grandal's, could make someone like Zack Collins or McCann available via trade. Because the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax, the White Sox would only lose a fourth-round pick (along with international bonus pool money) for his services.

Zack Wheeler: Five years for $120 million. This is probably more money than the White Sox would wish to spend on a pitcher, but he's one of those rare good free agent hurlers that haven't even turned 30 yet. He's been compared to Gerrit Cole by MLB.com, and he's consistently posted solid strikeout, ERA and WHIP numbers despite pitching in an extremely competitive division. He's experienced in pitching in a major media market. While this contract is quite generous, maybe added bonuses of $100K/quality start could win him to the Sox in a strong competition? He, like most of the top free agent hurlers (with the exception of Keuchel) would cost a second-round pick and international bonus pool money.

Will Smith: Three years for $42 million. Smith did a terrific job out of the pen this year for the Giants. He'd be the new closer, which would put Colome into a set-up role for which he's better suited for while also placing Bummer into an Andrew Miller-esque role of getting key outs anytime when needed. If the Giants offer him a QO, I don't see the White Sox risking yet another pick and international bonus money however for a reliever.If unavailable, I'd rather them go after former Sox Daniel Hudson or Astro reliever Will Harris.

Trades

I have two trades, both of which I acknowledge to be overpaying. The first is to acquire a left-handed hitting right fielder who should anchor that position for many years, while the second is to simply acquire a solid lefty who's earning the bare minimum right now. To acquire these two talents pre-arbitration, you have to relinquish significant talent for their services.

1B Andrew Vaughn, OF Blake Rutherford, LHRP Jace Fry and RHSP Matthew Thompson to the Astros for OF Kyle Tucker, OF Colin Barber and RHSP Luis Garcia. When going to baseballtradevalues.com, Kyle Tucker and Andrew Vaughn have basically the same values attached. However, the only way they'd deal their prized right fielder is to trade him via overpay. Fry would help the Astros bullpen in 2020, Vaughn would be ready to fill in for Gurriel in 2021 when he leaves via free agency, and Rutherford would be ready for outfield duties also in 2021 when one of their free agents leave as well. Thompson hails from nearby Cypress, so the young man will relish living near his family. The White Sox would get a right fielder who was ranked in MLB's top 10 prior to recently graduating from that list. He's just 22 and had plus defensive ratings this year, he's got a great arm, and (like Luis Robert) hit 30 homers and stole 30 bases. He's the lefty bat the White Sox have been needing. They also get a couple throw-ins--Garcia struck out 158 in 108 innings in A-ball last year while Barber was their fourth-rounder out of high school this year. This trade comes with great risk but potentially with great rewards.

C/1B Zack Collins, OF Luis Gonzalez, and LHSP Bernardo Flores to the Marlins for LHSP Caleb Smith and RHSP Chris Mokma. With the acquisition of Grandal and Martinez above, Collins becomes expendable and returns to his hometown.The Marlins are in desperate need for outfield help, and Gonzalez could help them fill that spot. Flores can eventually fill Smith's spot in the rotation, perhaps as early as late 2020. The White Sox receive Smith who looked dominant at times last year, but his numbers dipped as he had trouble with the gopher ball. With a new ball where he can get better grips on his slider, he could be a valuable swing-man or fifth starter if Kopech isn't quite ready or if Lopez continues to struggle. Mokma's an 18-year old who slid to the 12th round round this year, and he could join Andrew Dalquist in next year's Kannapolis rotation. He's bascially a throw-in, as they Sox need these types of guys to replace the draft picks they'd lose in 2020.

My new roster (when Robert and Madrigal are ready for the Show):

SP Lucas Giolito (600K)
SP Zack Wheeler (22M)
SP Reynaldo Lopez (600K)
SP Dylan Cease (600K)
SP Michael Kopech (600K)
RP Will Smith (13M)
RP Alex Colome (10.5M)
RP Aaron Bummer (600K)
RP Kelvin Herrera (8.5M)
RP Jimmy Cordero (600K)
RP Evan Marshall (1.3M)
RP/SP Caleb Smith (600K)
RP Ian Hamilton (600K)
SP Carlos Rodon (4.5M to be placed on 60-day DL)
RP Ryan Burr (600K to be placed on 60-day DL)

C Yasmani Grandal (21M)
1B Jose Abreu (14M)
2B Nick Madrigal (600K)
SS Tim Anderson (4M)
3B Yoan Moncada (600K)
LF Eloy Jimenez (2.33M)
CF Luis Robert (600K)
RF Kyle Tucker (600K)
DH J.D. Martinez (25M)
C James McCann (4.5M)
IF Danny Mendick (600K)
OF Leury Garcia (4M)
OF Adam Engel (600K)

Summary:

My overall salary with this squad, which actually consists of 28 guys as two will be on the DL to start the season), is about $143.6 million. Last year, with 25-man opening day rosters, that salary would have put us 14th among all MLB teams just above Cincinnati. When you factor in the expanded rosters,we may be somewhere around 15th or 16th. Most spots should be settled for years to come, but I can easily see at least $29 million off the books for next year (losing Colome, Herrera, McCann, Garcia and perhaps Marshall). That would bring us back down to $114 million with hopefully internal replacements for the guys that would be lost (Zavala, Burdi, Heuer, Basabe). Thus, the Sox will be in a terrific financial place in 2021 with simply having to add salaries via arbitration or extensions.

As for the team itself, it'd be absolutely loaded offensively. A lineup of something like Madrigal-Moncada-Martinez-Abreu-Grandal-Jimenez-Tucker-Robert-Anderson would look terrific. We'd add more OBP, OPS, walks, stolen bases and power to the team with three guys who could hit from the left side regularly. As for the pitching, I didn't add too much because the jury's still out on the young guys in the rotation. However, Wheeler fills the #2 slot nicely and the bullpen actually looks good -- especially if Herrera bounces back as I believe he will. Caleb Smith would be a great swing-man, especially if he can attain a better grip with the new 2020 baseballs.

The question is: Will the White Sox actually spend? They've already stated that the money will be spent, and I'm sure Hahn won't be looking forward to Sox Fest with nothing consequential added to the roster by that time. Also, Reinsdorf has something to prove after his comments were leaked about constantly vying for second place. Until the team makes significant deals (the Martinez, Grandal and Wheeler contracts above would all top the previous record contract for the franchise), the team will always be eyed with suspicion.