The great Nick Foles vs. Gardner Minshew debate

Nick Foles is ready to come back from his injury. Should the Jaguars bench the rookie Minshew?

The Gardner Minshew honeymoon is over. After Sunday’s loss to the Texans in London — one in which the rookie quarterback had more turnovers (four) than the Jaguars had points scored (three) — Jacksonville is 4-5 and trails the Texans by two games and a tiebreaker in the AFC South.

Nick Foles, the man the club signed for four years and $88 million back in March, is set to return from the broken collarbone that ended his Duuuuuuval debut after just eight passes. The Jaguars can activate the Super Bowl 52 MVP during the team’s upcoming bye week, giving him extra time to prep for his team’s pivotal Week 11 showdown on the road against Indianapolis.

That leaves a big decision on head coach Doug Marrone’s shoulders — one he’s not yet prepared to make in the wake of Week 9’s 26-3 defeat.

But figuring out the team’s quarterback issues may not be the panacea Jacksonville needs to find its way back to the postseason. The Jaguars are a sub-.500 team more than halfway through the season and just gave up 160 rushing yards to Carlos Hyde, a tailback they’d discarded after eight ineffective games a year earlier. Will Foles change anything for a team chasing the ghost of Blake Bortles?

The case for: Gardner Minshew, who has earned the job in Jacksonville

Sure, he’s had some of the growing pains you’d expect from a sixth-round rookie, but let’s not gloss over just how good Minshew has been in 2019. Even after his two-interception day in London — both of which were thrown during desperation time in the fourth quarter — Minshew has 13 touchdowns with only four picks and a 92.8 passer rating.

Those numbers are well ahead of any other rookie quarterback in 2019 and were good enough to earn him Rookie of the Week honors a staggering six out of the first eight weeks of the season.

He’s done that with a group of receivers that has received a breakout season from DJ Chark and uh ... not much else. After Chark, the leaders in receiving yards for the Jaguars are Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, and James O’Shaughnessy. Conley is a Chiefs castoff who had multiple drops against the Texans, including one on fourth down that was essentially a nail in the Jaguars’ coffin. Westbrook missed Week 9 while dealing with neck and shoulder injuries, and O’Shaughnessy is done for the year after tearing his ACL.

There’s a reason the Jaguars reportedly made an effort to trade for Jets receiver Robby Anderson.

It’s also not Minshew’s fault that the Jaguars defense is struggling to get off the field. The hapless Jets and Bengals were bumbling, turnover-prone messes against the Jaguars, but when the team has played good offenses, it hasn’t been good. Jacksonville’s forced a grand total of two turnovers in its seven games against teams other than New York and Cincinnati.

All that to say that Minshew’s not the reason the Jaguars have a losing record. If anything, his remarkable rookie season thus far is why the Jaguars have managed four wins.

So what does Foles fix, exactly? The Jaguars have an explosive and overachieving offense right now that just isn’t doing a great job at converting third downs or scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Foles isn’t the quarterback anyone should expect to solve either of those problems.

In fact, Foles is one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks at throwing for first-down yardage.

When Foles came in to save the Eagles in 2017 on his way to Super Bowl MVP honors, Philadelphia was 11-2. The team wasn’t exactly a fixer upper. Believing he’s a solution for the Jaguars’ problems in 2019 is a stretch, especially because Minshew has been the furthest thing from an issue. — Adam Stites

The case for Nick Foles, who didn’t play his way out of the lineup — and is too expensive to leave on the bench

Let’s address the big caveat that follows Foles any time he leaves Philadelphia; he’s been barely a replacement-level QB when he’s not wearing green and white. Before joining the Jags, his non-Eagles QB performance looked like this:

14 games (12 starts), 57.7 completion rate, 10 TDs, 10 INTs, a 5.6 adjusted yards-per-pass average, and a 74.2 passer rating

Yep. Non-Philly Foles is worse than legendary Houston Texan Brock Osweiler. But those games came as a backup in a pre-supercharged Chiefs offense (2016) and under Jeff Fisher with the Rams — the latter of which effectively set his ceiling at “Sam Bradford.” It’s possible he reverts back to that form, though Minshew’s success stands as an indication he’ll play closer to his Philadelphia standard.

Why? Because he’s surrounded by the kind of diverse playmakers that helped him level up as an Eagle. Despite some disappointing performances in London (without Westbrook), the Jaguars have significantly upgraded their receiving corps in the past two years. Westbrook and Chark bring an excellent blend of size and speed to the lineup, and Conley is a proven WR3 target who can move the chains with veteran efficiency.

The Jags have built a group of explosive targets that can gash opposing defenses in deep-threat situations or near the sticks, though the less said about their tight ends the better. The revitalized Leonard Fournette, who was held to just 3.6 yards per carry Sunday but otherwise is having the best year of his career, adds an extra layer of complexity to a formerly predictable offense. It needs every wrinkle it can find to balance out a defense that’s been much more impressive on paper than it’s been on the gridiron.

As good as Minshew’s been — and there’s no selling his impact short, especially after coming into the league as a sixth-round afterthought — his breakout rookie year suggests there’s a plug-and-play aspect to this Jaguars aerial attack. In his Jags debut, Foles was 6-of-8 for 75 yards and a touchdown before breaking his collarbone. That says a veteran can take that group to a higher plane of existence.

Minshew was good for the Jags. Foles can be better, at least in 2019. The veteran’s also got $33.75 million in dead cap space attached to his contract in 2020, which puts a little extra onus to get him in the lineup. Even if Minshew is the team’s future, showcasing a veteran talent before QB-needy teams come calling in the offseason makes sense.

And if he rallies you to the playoffs in a relative down year for the AFC, hell, that’s even better. — Christian D’Andrea