Pac-12 picks of the week: Playoff contenders Utah and Oregon installed as huge home favorites
The Utes and Ducks are favored by multiple touchdowns over UCLA and Arizona, respectively. In other games, Washington State, USC and ASU are expected to win.
*** My conversation with Doc’s Sports handicapper Raphael Esparza (@VSIdocsports) is available below. Esparza will join me each week during the season to discuss all the Pac-12 games …
Once each season, the Hotline devotes this space to the numbers that matter to so many: Every team’s record against the spread.
This time, we’ve included bonus information below:
Accompanying the analysis of each game are the participants’ records against the spread in the situation they’re facing this week (home favorite/underdog, and road favorite/underdog).
Not surprisingly, Oregon State has fared well against the spread; that’s generally true for any team that exceeds the public’s expectations.
Nor is it surprising that Stanford and Washington State are near the bottom; both teams have underperformed what was expected.
Digest as you see fit, and you can thank us later.
(Data taken from teamrankings.com)
***Against The Spread
Oregon State: 6-3Utah: 6-3Washington: 6-4Oregon: 5-4UCLA: 4-4-1Colorado: 5-5Cal: 4-5USC: 4-5-1ASU: 3-5-1Stanford: 3-6Washington State: 3-6Arizona: 2-6-1
*** Record vs. Over
Arizona: 6-3Washington: 6-4Stanford: 5-4Washington State: 5-4Colorado: 5-5USC: 5-5Oregon: 4-5UCLA: 4-5Oregon State: 4-5Arizona State: 4-5Cal: 2-7Utah: 2-7
To the picks …
Last week: 0-4Season: 30-34Five-star special: 5-6
All picks against the spread.Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (for entertainment purposes only, or not)
Open weeks: Washington, Colorado
Stanford (+11.5) at Washington State: The Cardinal, champion of the North just two years ago, is a double-digit underdog against the last-place team. We think it’s too many points: Three of the past four matchups have been decided by a field goal or less, including the past two in the Palouse. Stanford will have trouble on the back line without injured cornerback Paulson Adebo. WSU’s defense isn’t playing well enough to support a double-digit spread against anyone, even an offense as inconsistent as Stanford’s. Forecast calls for showers on Friday. If it rains on game day, first team to 20 wins. Pick: Stanford.Stanford ATS as road underdog: 0-2WSU ATS as home favorite: 2-2
UCLA (+21) at Utah: Prime-time opportunity (5 p.m. kickoff/FOX) for the Utes to strut their stuff for the selection committee. Both teams had two weeks to prepare — for UCLA, that means two weeks to devise a plan to keep Dorian Thompson-Robinson upright. Best guess: The Bruins rely on their ground game to give Utah’s pass rush pause. Not difficult to envision the Utes taking a conservative approach offensively: Limit turnovers, win field position, wear down the UCLA defense and take control in the second half. Utes have covered the spread in each of the past five games and allowed 33 points at home all season. Pick: Utah.UCLA ATS as road underdog: 2-1-1Utah ATS as home favorite: 3-2
USC (-6.5) at Cal: Both teams are getting healthy: USC in the offensive backfield, Cal on the offensive line — and perhaps at quarterback, too. Chase Garbers has been cleared to practice, but his availability Saturday is uncertain. It would be his first action since late September, and the level of rust displayed in practice will assuredly frame the decision. USC’s receivers against Cal’s secondary is one of the best matchups in the conference all year, but the running game is the key: If the Trojans are 150+ on the ground, it won’t be close. Pick: USC.USC ATS as road favorite: 0-2-1Cal ATS as home underdog: 1-0
Arizona (+27.5) at Oregon: The Wildcats won last year’s duel by 29 in Tucson and are now an underdog by 27.5 in Eugene. We were surprised by the result in 2018 but would be fully dumbfounded by an Arizona victory of any size this weekend. The Ducks can be beaten, but not by a team with no defense and no quarterback and too few playmakers on the perimeter. Oregon plays name-the-score, and that might be quite a score given the necessity to accumulate style points in the playoff race. Pick: OregonArizona ATS as road underdog: 1-2Oregon ATS as home favorite: 2-3
Arizona State (-3) at Oregon State: I-5 headed southbound through Oregon should be crowded Saturday afternoon, and the better destination (for those interested in a competitive game) will be Corvallis. Jayden Daniels’ expected return will elevate ASU’s playmaking and spirits. The central question for Oregon State is one of time: Will Jake Luton have any? If so, the Beavers should reach the end zone frequently enough to push ASU to the wire. The Sun Devils’ best chance for success: involve Eno Benjamin early against the porous OSU defense. Pick: Oregon StateArizona State ATS as road favorite: 0-1Oregon State ATS as home underdog: 1-3
Straight-up winners: Washington State, Utah, USC, Oregon and Arizona State
Five-star special: Utah. It might take time — three quarters, perhaps even three-and-a-half — but eventually a Crimson wave will overwhelm the Bruins, and a close game will turn into a blowout.
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