Raptors Contention Metre: Optimism grows for team that bets on itself
How good are the Raptors, really?
So much of this season — on the back of last year’s championship run — seems to hinge around figuring out exactly what’s what with Toronto’s roster this year and just how good they can be without Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Championship goggles, basically. That’s why I’ve created this report that will zero in on exactly how the Raptors are performing against stiff competition in relation to those around them.
Previous: RCM I. RCM II. RCM III.
Best vs. the best vs. the rest
With four straight wins against teams with a positive net rating (Thunder, Sixers, Pacers twice), Toronto has steadily climbed the table featuring 13 teams that have set themselves apart this season. In case you’re wondering, despite Memphis being over the .500 mark, Cleaning the Glass currently has them with a net rating of minus-1.5 so they do not place in this edition. Maybe next time!
Toronto has had its issues scoring in the halfcourt against the top tier teams this season, as reflected by a drop from 98.6 points per-100 possessions in the halfcourt against teams with a negative net rating to 91.1 points per-100 possessions against teams with a positive net rating. Some of this, as highlighted in previous editions, is down to the injuries the Raptors have suffered. In an offence that is so dependent on multiple threats on the floor and the value of the collective IQ being greater than what any one individual can produce, the absence of key players across the season have hurt the Raptors in this regard. Pascal Siakam is continuing to learn what being a No. 1 option is all about, and we are currently witnessing the growing pains that could eventually take him from All-Star to superstar.
The last four games against good teams have provided a positive trend, where after posting a 87.9 offensive rating in the halfcourt through 17 games, they have scored 104.5 points per-100 possessions in the halfcourt over the last four.
Serge Ibaka’s improvement as a facilitator has played its part, as has Terence Davis’ steady ascendance. Ibaka was often viewed as a black hole offensively, the ball either getting put up for a shot or turned over. But his improved ability to make reads and find not just shooters on the weakside out of the post, but also cutters as he works against his defender has been a breath of fresh air. I’d often hear people say “Ibaka is just dumb” with regard to his decision making in the past, and this added wrinkle to his game has done well to shut them up. It speaks to just how much a player is a product of his environment, and when asked to only do certain things, goes about focusing on producing just those things. A player with his sense of timing and ability to make defensive reads has got to have a high level of smarts, and it’s great to see that he’s taken the chance to become a better passer with both hands. Having played for over a decade in the league, Ibaka has built a reputation as one of the hardest workers in the league and there’s no doubt that he’s put in the time to learn from and emulate teammate Marc Gasol.
The Raptors have continued to be utterly dominant against teams with a negative net rating, playing to the tune of a plus-12.1 against them and winning 30 of their 32 games. Only the Bucks have been able to better that level of professionalism. I know many would smirk at this and say it matters little in the post-season as you won’t see any of those teams after the first round, but as Jack Armstrong says, excellence is a habit. The intensity and effort head coach Nick Nurse demands out of his players on a daily basis whether it be on practice or under the bright lights is something that can carry the club further than most expected when the season began. The Raptors can take pride and draw confidence from the fact that they know they can compete at the highest level for 48 minutes night in and night out. This isn’t some tap you can turn on and off at the flick of a wrist, these are habits that need to be inculcated during the season so that they can be decisions of natural instinct under the pressure of a playoff setting.
General league observations
Boston sits pretty atop the competitive standings with a plus-4.7, even ahead of the mighty Bucks and that’s courtesy of some lopsided results against the Mavericks, Nuggets, Heat and Lakers in which they’ve accumulated a plus-13.1 net rating in seven games. Jayson Tatum has and continues to make significant strides this season while Kemba Walker is only growing more comfortable in his role. They are a real threat to the Bucks and the gap between these two teams doesn’t appear as significant as the eight games in the East standings suggests.
How much can we read into Houston’s ratings with such a significant fundamental change to their team in replacing Clint Capela with Robert Covington? Not too much. The first two games they’ve played with P.J. Tucker at centre suggest that Russell Westbrook is now the focal point and so there may be more to glean from their final 30 games than their first 52.
At 13-7, Denver has the best record against teams with a positive net rating and one has to start wondering if they’re not getting enough respect. All the talk has surrounded the Bucks, Lakers and Clippers as the highest bidders for the championship, but the Nuggets perhaps continue to fly under the radar because Nikola Jokic doesn’t fit the appearance of a traditional superstar.
Current contention status
The Raptors clearly didn’t find a move before the trade deadline that could move the needle enough to change their current standing. The players have produced more than enough over the first half of the season to earn the opportunity to make the playoffs their own, and good on them for doing so.
How things shake out between seeds 2-6 in the Eastern Conference remains anyone’s guess, and despite the Pacers’ recent struggles, I’d like to see Victor Oladipo with a solid chunk of games under his belt before drawing conclusions on what their ceiling is. The Sixers, in my opinion, give off all the vibes of the Celtics from last year, struggling for chemistry and providing too few of the moments that suggest they can be a true contender.
Miami have now fallen four games back of the Raptors in the loss column and so Boston stands as the main threat to Toronto securing the vital second seed that can help provide at least one less round of stress before the mayhem truly begins. There is enough evidence at this point of the season to suggest the Raptors are certainly capable of returning to the conference finals, but one of the more intriguing questions that has floated around over the past week is whether Miami or Boston poses the more imminent threat to the Raptors’ playoff chances.
I’d probably give the edge to the Celtics when looking at their performances against the best teams and their battle-tested depth. Miami is extremely physical and have a tremendous coaching staff to boot, but Boston’s depth in shot creation in the half-court gives them an important advantage. From Walker in the pick-and-roll to Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward across the wings, each of them can get off their own shot at will. That matters so much in the playoffs.
Despite winning 14 straight and standing tall at an impressive 39-14, the injuries and Siakam’s continued growth still leave intrigue as to whether the Raptors deserve to be considered above the current 2-6 bunch. For now, it’s clear that Toronto will need every advantage they can get against them, so emerging from a difficult March unscathed will be critical in determining that.
Raptors Contention Metre: Optimism grows for team that bets on itself originated on Raptors Republic.