Pac-12 basketball power ratings: The finishing schedules weren’t created equally (one team has the edge)
Four teams are tied atop the standings, each with four conference losses. But the finishing schedules aren't created equally, and one team has the edge.
Three weeks left, four tied teams (loss column), and innumerable scenarios for the end game.
Those scenarios, by the way, include a team not currently tied for first place finishing in first place.
Easy as it might be to focus attention on Colorado, Oregon and the Arizona schools, let’s not forget UCLA and USC lurking one game back and deeply relevant.
Which team has the most favorable schedule?
Which has the toughest finishing stretch?
Here’s the lineup for each with opponent conference record and our sketch of scenarios:
Arizona (8-4)
Home: Oregon (9-4), Oregon State (5-8), Washington (2-11), Washington State (5-8)
Road: USC (8-5), UCLA (8-5)
Best case: 5-1 finish/13-5 overall
Worst case: 3-3 finish/11-7 overall
Arizona State (8-4)
Home: Oregon (9-4), Oregon State (5-8), Washington (2-11), Washington State (5-8)
Road: USC (8-5), UCLA (8-5)
Best case: 5-1 finish/13-5 overall
Worst case: 2-4 finish/10-8 overall
Colorado (9-4)
Home: USC (8-5), UCLA (8-5)
Road: Cal (4-8), Stanford (5-7), Utah (5-8)
Best case: 5-0 finish/14-4 overall
Worst case: 2-3 finish/11-7 overall
Oregon (9-4)
Home: Oregon State (5-8), Cal (4-8), Stanford (5-7)
Road: Arizona (8-4), Arizona State (8-4)
Best case: 4-1 finish/13-5 overall
Worst case: 2-3 finish/11-7 overall
UCLA (8-5)
Home: Arizona (8-4), Arizona State (8-4)
Road: Utah (5-8), Colorado (9-4), USC (8-5)
Best case: 3-2 finish/11-7 overall
Worst case: 1-4 finish/9-9 overall
USC (8-5)
Home: Arizona (8-4), Arizona State (8-4), UCLA (8-5)
Road: Utah (5-8), Colorado (9-4)
Best case: 3-2 finish/10-8 overall
Worst case: 1-4 finish/9-9 overall
The toughest stretch belongs to UCLA, which has two difficult home games, plus one of the toughest trips in the conference and a visit to USC.
We’ve pegged 13 conference wins as the total required for the No. 1 seed, (with 12 more likely than 14, by the way).
To get there, the Bruins must go 5-0 against a lineup that’s more likely to produce 0-5.
The easiest finish (such as it is) belongs to Colorado, which doesn’t play any of the other four-loss teams, gets its toughest remaining games at home and faces only sub-.500 opponents on the road.
Win four, and the Buffaloes will be well-positioned.
Heck, we wouldn’t be surprised if CU finishes 13-5 and wins the conference by two games.
1. Oregon (20-6/9-4)
Last week: 2
Results: Beat Colorado 68-60 and Utah 80-62
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: First Bol Bol, now N’Faly Dante. The five-star big men haven’t experienced much good fortune during their tours of Eugene.
2. Colorado (20-6/9-4)
Last week: 1
Results: Lost at Oregon 68-60, won at Oregon State 69-47
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
Comment: CU’s best conference record since joining the Pac-12 is 11-7. The Buffs have hit the mark just once — in their first year as a member.
3. Arizona State (17-8/8-4)
Last week: 3
Results: Won at Sanford 74-69 and at Cal 80-75
Next up: vs. Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: Six of the Sun Devils’ past seven games have been decided by five points or less. Clearly, Bobby Hurley has taken a page from the Herm Edwards playbook … or vice versa.
4. UCLA (15-11/8-5)
Last week: 4
Results: Beat Washington State 86-83 and Washington 67-57
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
Comment: Tyger Campbell in the past nine games: 41 assists, 17 turnovers. UCLA in the past nine games: seven wins.
5. Arizona (18-7/8-4)
Last week: 5
Results: Won at Cal 68-52 and at Stanford 69-60
Next up: vs Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: The Thursday affair would qualify as a trap game, except for that 17-point battering in Corvallis. If motivation is an issue, the Cats have issues.
6. USC (19-7/8-5)
Last week: 6
Results: Beat Washington 62-56 and Washington State 70-51
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: The Trojans are due for an eye-opening result. Although with them, that could take the form of a bad loss or big win.
7. Utah (14-11/5-8)
Last week: 7
Results: Lost at Oregon State 70-51 and Oregon 80-62
Next up: vs. UCLA
Comment: Utes at home in conference play: 5-1. Utes on the road in conference play: 0-7. Utes overall: Headed for that 8-9 game in Las Vegas.
8. Oregon State (15-10/5-8)
Last week: 10
Results: Beat Utah 70-51, lost to Colorado 69-47
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: “Those Beavers sure are unpredictable,” said boxes of chocolates everywhere.
9. Stanford (16-9/5-7)
Last week: 8
Results: Lost to Arizona State 74-69 and Arizona 69-60
Next up: at Washington (Thursday)
Comment: The Cardinal started conference play 4-0 and has gone 1-7 since, which makes this season no different than so many of the past 10.
10. Washington State (14-12/5-8)
Last week: 9
Results: Lost at UCLA 86-83 and USC 70-51
Next up: vs. Cal (Wednesday)
Comment: If the Cougars sweep this week, we just might declare Kyle Smith the Pac-12 Coach of the Year, regardless of what happens (anywhere) the rest of the way.
11. Cal (10-15/4-8)
Last week: 11
Results: Lost to Arizona 68-52 and Arizona State 80-75
Next up: at Washington State (Wednesday)
Comment: This deep into conference play, opponents are better prepared and countermoves are essential for success. The Bears are woefully short on available countermoves.
12. Washington (12-14/2-11)
Last week: 12
Results: Lost at USC 62-56 and UCLA 67-57
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: The losing streak, now at eight, ends Thursday night.
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