10 Reasons I'm Ridiculously Optimistic About This Rebuild

Adalberto Raul Mondesi: if you can stay even moderately healthy, your floor at this point is a competent shortstop, perhaps a borderline All-Star. That's the floor, y'all, at the hardest position to fill. Add Dozier to the mix, and he showed that his floor is probably a regular starter - and there's a decent shot he's more, if his first half is indicative of his true talent. Perez probably has a few good years left in him (especially with the gap TJ year to get healthy.)

Like many, I don't think Merrifield will be here for the Next Wave TM. But I think there's a decent shot Soler gets extended by mid-season if he continues to show out this year.

I know, his bat ain't as great as the broadcasters say it is. And he's been getting a little worse each year, despite being decently young. I don't care about all that - though I do think the gap year and pacing for rehab's sake will help his bat this year.

Baseball is just more fun with him around. It's more fun for the fans, and I think it'd probably be more fun for his teammates. And when you're having fun out there, the "work" part of the game sucks a little less.

Yes, his bat is washed. Like Salvy, his best offensive days are behind him - way behind him, in Alex's case. But with all these young players around, I think it's important to have Salvy's lightheartedness and Gordon's hardcore lead-by-example presence to help groom the younger players that we'll be bringing up this year.

Plus, he did look pretty decent in the first half last year. Maybe this year, they pace him a little more? Ned never understood pacing players for health's sake, but maybe Matheny will.

Is there anything quite like that feeling of buying a lotto ticket? Sure, your odds of being gang-maimed by a shark in the middle of Rodeo Drive are higher than your changes of striking the lotto, but what the hell - it's SPRING Y'ALL: HOPE. I particularly am enamored with our 1B duo: McBroom was a decent (blocked) AAAA guy in the Yankees' system, while O'Hearn had those few good months two years ago. Both have a non-zero chance of breaking out. If either one does ....

Same goes for Bubba, Maverick, Lopez ... all three are fringe major leaguers with non-zero changes to be at least adequate. They'll all get ABs at some point: due to trades, injuries, poor performance of others.

Unlike the old days of Royals Rebuilds, we seem to be stacking a few versatile players, plus a few lotto tickets at each spot, giving us more changes at finding a gem and less Jose Guillen. I'm here for it.

No, Buddy Bell. Stop it. The bullpen can't get worse. It was terrible-awful-crap the last few years. With Ian Kennedy finding a role, Duffy unable to stay healthy in the rotation, Staumont reaching his "prove it or GTFO" year, Zimmer getting some healthy IP last year, Rosenthal looking decent in early Spring action, this is going to be a hell of an interesting corps.

Worst case: Kennedy regresses or is traded. Everyone else (Staumont, Zimmer, Rosenthal) can't find the zone and turn into gas cans, none of the Next Wave push Duffy to the bullpen, etc.

But here's my optimistic take: Duffy looks okay to start the year, but moves to the bullpen for one of the Next Wave. A couple of those young guys show up and show out, making our rotation passable by May. Duffy and Kennedy for a lockdown 1-2 in the bullpen, and one of the other guys breaks out, giving us a new HDH ... RDK anyone? Matheny will have a short leash with anyone who looks like a gas can and we'll burn through a ton of our minor league SP and RP prospects until we settle on a stable pitching staff by midseason.

Singer. Kowar. Lynch. Bubic. Carlos Hernandez? Shoot, I'm missing some of the crazy great SP prospect core, but I think a couple will crack the rotation this year. Maybe one starts in the bullpen. I know all about TINSTAPP, but get enough of 'em and a couple are bound to make it - esp. if they are seasoned college guys, which are less risky than high schoolers.

One of the arguments I hear a lot is that the other Central teams have higher-ranked systems, better major league talent, etc. And the latter is true - Minnesota and Cleveland, maybe Chicago, all have better MLB teams, as of today. (Though Cleveland is content with mediocrity, which will backfire, and Minnesota's rotation is comically bad. Chicago is unproven.)

Prospect failure rate is astronomical. For all the reasons our own skeptics deride our system, I argue that we have nothing to fear in our rivals' systems. Are they ranked higher? Sure. But when something like a tenth of your system will ever make the majors, the difference between, I dunno, 15th system and 19th system is basically zero.

I know we all were underwhelmed by the offseason. But I do think the new owner, plus the new TV contract, plus the current low payroll, portend a very fine future indeed. Why? When we're close to competing, I'd bet that all that payroll flexibility will mean we go hard in the FA market to plug holes.

Sherman himself said in the interview with Mellinger that payroll is a multi-year thing. Maybe he just doesn't want to sign a Jose Guillen (horrible) or a Gil Meche (I still love and defend that signing) for a 100-loss developmental team? Defer the cash, and spend a ton in a year or two when we have only a couple holes to plug.

We have sure-ish things for 2021:

• C: Perez
• 2B/RF/LF: Whit (under contract, for now)
• DH: Soler (not sure on contract status, but I think he'll be extended regardless)
• 3B/RF: Dozier
• SS: Mondesi

Everyone wants Whit traded for MOAR PROSPECTS. But with so much of the league tanking the past few years (see the cold FA market for proof of that), there haven't been too many serious teams. Everyone is hoarding prospects. If you aren't offered what he's worth, why not keep him around to sell tickets and live to trade another day? (I do remember folks saying that Whit was a one-year wonder, then he was "too old" to keep it up for a third year, etc.) it seems like more teams are fighting to compete this year, so maybe we'll see him get flipped. If not, even a declining Whit is a valuable Zobrist-esque component to the roster this year and next.

The entire minor league hitting situation was screwed last year. It sure sounds like they're revamping and addressing that problem.

Dozier seems like he's proved that he's not a 3B. He's now in RF. We have two 3B prospects, plus Frano, who I already forgot about until just now, but he'll only be here for half a year. (And if he does miraculously turn it around, we have him under team control next year too.)

There's competition up and own the roster. Two CF prospects (blocked by Whit, who can also slide to 2B if Lopez flops). Two 1B prospects. A rent-a-3B, with two AAA-level prospects behind him. Rotation is a little short, but we have Foster Griffin, I guess, and the Next Wave likely to start showing up this year. I have no idea how many relievers we have in camp, but a lot of them throw really hard, I guess, so there's that. Bottom line is: I believe in competition and making guys earn their spots. I think the Royals have done that with their roster this year.

So, that's my optimistic take. I'm calling us a 2013-esque team, though I think we'll start even rougher and end up just under .500. But we'll be fun to watch. And next year though ... next year, the Wild Card is ours.