‘Negative’ economic growth seen in 2020 as Covid-19 ravages PH

THE ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could drag Philippine economic growth to “low single-digit or even negative levels” this year, analysts said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) economist Michael Ricafort, in a report, projects “a range of -1 to +1 as a result of sharply reduced business and economic activities during the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) period”.

Meanwhile, UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said that “GDP growth 2020 sags to -3.4 percent” under a worst-case scenario, which involves a multiple resurgence of the virus.

Both forecasts are lower than the S&P Global Ratings’ 4.2 percent, Fitch Solutions’ 4.0 percent, ING Bank Manila’s 3.5 percent, World Bank’s 3 percent, Moody’s Investors Services’ 2.5 percent; Asian Development Bank’s 2 percent, Nomura’s 1.6 percent, ANZ Research’s 1.2 percent, and International Monetary Fund’s 0.6 percent.