Lacking data, many African governments make policy in the dark

THE GRAVEDIGGERS of Kano know something is up. Death has not come as rapidly to this town in northern Nigeria since a great cholera outbreak 60 years ago, one told the BBC. Local newspapers are running long lists of names of people who have died after showing symptoms of covid-19. Among them were two professors, a newspaper columnist, the former editor of a paper and the mother of a film star. “They all died on Saturday,” read one report. Nobody knows whether they died of the virus, because nobody has checked.

According to official data Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has one of the continent’s lowest burdens of covid-19. As of May 7th it had reported 103 deaths and 3,145 confirmed infections from the novel coronavirus. That is almost certainly a vast undercount given that Nigeria has tested fewer than 22,000 people. The government has nonetheless begun easing lockdowns in Lagos, the commercial hub, and Abuja, the capital.

Making policy without reliable facts is hardly unique to Nigeria. In Somalia doctors worry about a surge in deaths, despite official figures showing only a small number of confirmed cases. Nor is it a new problem. A paucity of data across swathes of Africa has left governments guessing about where to build schools and roads. Businesses must take shots in the dark when investing in new markets...