Eastern Europe’s covid-19 recession could match its post-communist one

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EUROPE HAS so far been hit the hardest of any continent by covid-19, but the pandemic has been more tornado than hurricane, ravaging some areas while leaving others nearly unscathed. Eastern Europe has been less affected than the west, and even eastern Germany less than western Germany. Southern Europe has suffered more than the north. Gaps between neighbours can be striking: Spain’s excess mortality per person is more than triple that in Portugal, and France’s quadruple that in Germany. Economically, too, the impact is uneven. As forecasts of the pandemic’s economic damage emerge, central and eastern Europe look especially precarious.

It is not that the rest of the continent is doing well. In the first quarter of 2020 the EU suffered its deepest economic contraction on record. Its GDP shrank by 3.5% compared with the previous quarter. Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, dwindled by 2.2% in the same period. Figures for the second quarter, when lockdowns were at...