Zero coronavirus cases for a month in most of England and second national lockdown ‘not necessary’
MOST neighborhoods in England have recorded zero coronavirus cases in a month making a second national lockdown unnecessary, an expert has said.
Professor John Clancy, of Birmingham City University, has warned current fears of cities in Britain returning to lockdown are based on “dodgy data”.
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Writing in a recent blog, Professor Clancy said: “91 per cent of England (that’s 51million people) live in neighbourhoods where there hasn’t been a recorded Covid-19 case in the last 4 weeks.”
He added: “So-called ‘spikes’ are occurring here, there, and everywhere up and down the country because new testing regimes are causing them either with false positives, picking up residual infections or (usually more likely) suddenly increased testing in specific areas.
“‘Just in case’ lockdowns are simply not an acceptable response to dodgy data. And lockdowns cause deaths.”
Government scientists have warned that another national shutdown could return if cases spike.
Many nations in Europe – such as France and Spain – have already seen what is being dubbed a second wave as cases rise.
Some towns and cities are also facing the threat of local lockdowns, such as Birmingham – which has seen 321 cases in the last week.
Professor Clancy, who is also the former leader of Birmingham City Council, warned current testing numbers are “low and unreliable”.
He also blasted testing in Britain as in “total chaos” – saying “policy responses based on it will be chaos too”.
He said: “The reality is that increased and more widespread testing is leading, oddly enough, to finding more cases.
“This has not broadly led to increases in Covid-19 related deaths and hospital admissions in other so-called hotspots.”
Birmingham has become the focus of fears of a second outbreak with coronavirus, being placed on the national watch list by Health Secretary Matt Hancock.
Police have been cracking down on enforcing social distancing, and said last night they were called to more than 70 street and house parties.
However, Professor Clancy said the government data shows 87 of Birmingham’s 132 neighbourhoods did not record a single positive case of coronavirus last week.
He also pointed out the apparent 40 per cent jump in the number of cases per 100,000 over the past two weeks is actually just an increase of six people.
The expert said: “These are micro-numbers, and talking about them in terms of spikes just won’t do. It is certainly not enough to spark policy change.”
He warned local officials risk “over-reacting” to apparent spikes.
And he said should the decision should be taken by national government as city politicians do not “have significant enough democratic mandate”.
Professor Clancy explained he backed “hyper-local intervention” to try and beat the coronavirus.
And he added officials should only be alarmed if there is a spike in deaths, saying they are “sadly” the “most reliable” figure during the pandemic.
Britain recorded just six deaths today, while England recorded a new low of one.
He said: “What you can’t have is local lockdown panic without a wider context.
“Otherwise you’ll get ridiculous decisions to lockdown completely unrelated to the actual risk.
“Hyper-local intervention in very local areas of concern is a much better future option.
“Shutting down regions and cities will be ineffective, and has already been seen to be so.”
He added: “Until we get our testing, and track and tracing system, into proper, reliable shape we should not be basing policy on it.”
Fears have surfaced of second nationwide coronavirus lockdown as officials warned the end of the year will be “bumpy” for Britain.
The Sage advisory group said Britain’s reproduction number was between 0.9 and 1.1, with senior sources warning “more nationwide measures” may be needed.
A senior government source told The Telegraph: “We’re looking at a pretty bumpy autumn and winter and that’s going to go in the direction of increased cases and increased outbreaks.”
Another source added: “If it doesn’t get contained it may be that some things that have been open, you need to think about whether measures need to be taken to reverse things.”
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