Marco is now a Hurricane, path takes it into Louisiana tomorrow

Tropical Storm Marco is getting better organized across the southeastern Gulf today. The National Hurricane Center is thinking Marco could still become a hurricane later this afternoon. Conditions are not ideal for further strengthening, however, as southwesterly shear is now impacting the system.

These are where things stand now. Here’s the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

Marco will continue to work north-northwestward through today. Landfall is expected tomorrow afternoon across southeastern Louisiana, possibly as a weak hurricane. Most of the effects through tomorrow will be across southeastern Louisiana, with the exception being a few squally showers working westward into Acadiana. HURRICANE WARNINGS are in effect in these areas. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH has been issued for inland areas of eastern Acadiana. Any effects for Acadiana would occur Monday night and Tuesday as the storm is expected to slowly bend back westward, moving closer to Acadiana. Here’s my latest thinking in terms of possible effects.

I think the wind threat will be low across Acadiana as I do expect a weakening storm by the time the storm works this far westward. A breezy day will be likely both Monday and especially Tuesday. On Tuesday, winds could be in the 25-35 mph range with the possibility of a 40 mph wind gust in stronger storm activity. Heavy rain could certainly be possible, but I’m hopeful Acadiana won’t see a massive flood threat from this system. Here’s the latest Futuretrack for tomorrow night and Tuesday.

Notice activity is limited on the western and southwestern side of Marco, both as it makes landfall across southeastern Louisiana and as it drifts westward Tuesday. This is mainly due to dry air getting pumped into the circulation by an upper-level trough. Without strong and consolidated storm activity, it’s hard for the stronger winds to work down to the surface. For this reason, I’m hopeful the effects across Acadiana will be minimal from Marco.

Storm surge will be likely across coastal Louisiana as a deep southeasterly fetch begins to push water into these areas through tomorrow. Inland flooding of 2-4 feet could be possible mainly along and east of Vermilion parish. Water levels of 3-5 feet could be possible across southeastern Louisiana. These numbers are based on surge coming in during high tide.

Get your preparations done today, because even if Acadiana does not see much from Marco, Laura is looming down the road. We’ll know more about Laura’s eventual path in the coming days.