Donald Trump ‘could pull off another upset and smash Biden’ like he did Hillary, new analysis shows
PRESIDENT Trump could beat Joe Biden in another 2016-style upset, according to a recent analysis by Axios.
Polls have Biden ahead, and many political pundits are saying Trump doesn’t stand a chance. However, experts predicted similar results in 2016, with polls by CNN and other mainstream news sites putting Clinton far ahead of Trump.
The new analysis gives Trump a number of distinct advantages. For starters, his voter base is ferociously loyal, and many Trump supporters will cast a Republican vote no matter what.
Polling data tweeted out by Frank Luntz, a political consultant, lists Trump’s support in several swing states as higher than it was in August 2016.
SWING STATES: 2016 AND 2020
Despite Joe Biden's more widespread appeal among voters, recent swing state polling data has suggested that he is less popular than Hillary Clinton was
Political consultant Frank Luntz recently tweeted polling data from August 25 comparing the leanings of swing states regarding Democratic candidate Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton.
Pennsylvania – 2016: Clinton +9.2; 2020: Biden +5.7
Michigan – 2016: Clinton +9.0; 2020: Biden +6.7
Wisconsin – 2016: Clinton +11.5; 2020: Biden +6.5
Florida – 2016: Clinton +2.9; 2020: Biden +4.8
The majority of predictions in 2016 pegged Clinton as the surefire winner of the election. Similar predictions are being made now regarding Biden.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll put the number of swing voters at 13%, which is more than enough undecided ballots to sway the election.
One phenomenon that has been heavily known to skew voting is social desirability bias, wherein people respond to polls about their opinions by downplaying their views that are less popular and emphasizing opinions that make them look better.
With the extreme relevance of race relations in the 2020 election, social desirability bias could significantly, and incorrectly, skew data in favor of Biden.
Additionally, President Trump has put a significant amount of energy into slamming Biden, including making the assertion that a Biden victory would be a Chinese victory.
It is possible that these attacks against Biden could mean the former vice president loses face. Personal dislike proved to be an Achilles heel for the Clinton campaign four years ago.
Despite Trump’s attempts to undermine Biden’s appearance, he is viewed far more positively than Clinton was. A particular segment of the voters that have come out in favor of Biden is the elderly, who were largely pro-Trump before.
Trump also will likely suffer from losing his status as an outsider candidate, which helped his appeal in 2016.
Economically speaking, the stock market is booming in the face of the pandemic, and blue collar workers – a cornerstone of Trump’s base – are doing well.
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Trump has gone up 20 points among white people, who make up the vast majority of the electorate. He is also receiving more support in the hispanic community than he did in 2016.
On the other hand, women and college-educated white people have strayed away from supporting Trump.
Another issue for the Biden campaign stems from the fact that he seems to be increasingly embracing far-left policy.
This has reportedly been a comfort for Trump’s strategists, who see their campaign as growing increasingly concise, while Biden seems to be at the whim of violent extremists.
In an interview with The New Yorker, Barack Obama suggested that Biden’s increasingly left-wing plans for the presidency are similar to Bernie Sanders’ – universal health care, higher wages, and education reform.
“If you look at Joe Biden’s goals and Bernie Sanders’s goals, they’re not that different, from a forty-thousand-foot level,” he said.