Blackhawks’ Alex DeBrincat puzzled by scoring drop, looking for answers entering offseason
With DeBrincat’s expensive new contract kicking in next season, the Hawks need their 22-year-old star to start scoring again somehow.
Alex DeBrincat deserves credit for one thing: All season long, he was constantly peppered with questions about his lack of goal-scoring, and he owned up to it and answered honestly every time.
But with the season now over, DeBrincat is also deservedly feeling the pressure this offseason.
“[This season] was different for me,” he admitted during his end-of-year media availability this week. “I’ve never really had that problem in previous seasons or most of my life. It was a learning experience.
“You have to take time — just because it isn’t going in doesn’t mean you’re not playing well. A lot of times, it’s hard to think like that, but you need to take a step away, assess your game, see how you’re playing and keep your confidence up.”
In 79 regular and post-season games in 2019-20, DeBrincat scored only 20 goals, including only eight at even strength.
Making his meager total all the more shocking was how strongly it contrasted with his prolific scoring the past two years. In 82 games in 2018-19, DeBrincat scored 41 goals, tied for sixth in the NHL. And in 82 games in 2017-18, DeBrincat scored 28 goals, third among NHL rookies.
Last fall, his lack of productivity looked like a mere slow start. In the winter, it looked like a poor first half. In the playoffs this summer, he looked poised for a breakout every passing day.
Yet the Blackhawks were eventually eliminated by the Golden Knights in five games, and still DeBrincat’s breakout never came. He ran out of time.
Making it all the more confusing for DeBrincat himself was that he fervently insisted all year long, and especially recently, that he was still all doing the right things that used to lead to goals.
“Obviously they weren’t trickling in like the year before, but I feel like I was putting it where I wanted,” he said. “Maybe goalies are reading me better, or maybe I need to tweak something in my shot. Haven’t figured out why they weren’t going in as much this year. That’s something I’ll try to figure out.”
The numbers largely back up DeBrincat’s self-assessment.
From 2018-19 to 2019-20, DeBrincat’s shot attempts per minute at even strength actually increased from 0.26 to 0.28.
His efficiency in other even-strength categories did decline slightly. 29.4% of his attempts were blocked this season, versus 25.9% the year before. 55.6% of his attempts were counted as scoring chances this season, versus 60.7% the year before.
But those declines don’t nearly explain his precipitous drop from 24 to eight even-strength goals.
The most plausible, although also least satisfying, explanation is that it mostly boiled down to pure luck.
Somehow, opposing goaltenders recorded an unbelievable .952 save percentage this season against DeBrincat, generally one of the Hawks’ best snipers, after recording an ugly .860 save percentage against him during his first two NHL seasons.
Unfortunately, it still falls on DeBrincat — if the universe doesn’t help him out first, which it appears it won’t — to find a way to overcome that misfortune.
The 22-year-old wing’s three-year contract extension with a $6.4 million annual cap hit, signed before last October’s season opener and intended to make him a permanent core member, kicks in this coming season. That’s a sizable cap hit the space-strapped Hawks cannot justify if DeBrincat doesn’t start producing again.
So he’s going back to the drawing board this offseason.
“[I’m going to] just get back in the gym, probably start skating relatively soon,” he said. “We had a long break before the playoffs, so I don’t need too long here to get back on the ice, start working on some things... [I’m] trying to get back on track, become a better player.”